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Good design void.

Well played townies. You goody goody bastards. But still, well done.

Psych, I always admire an outed run. You did break my heart though.

Scum team kept it close despite some tough nights. I was absentee for large stretches early. Appreciate them carrying the load.

Crackleslap said:

Funny interactions early game. I said my vote was for sale day 1 so mattieu tries to remove from me n1 and i copied the ability which allowed me to see that the person who slover queen visited wouldn't know they lost their vote. Unfortunately for psycho and i went to work so i couldn't remember or read the flavour i read so i thought sliver queen stole my vote as well and saw psycho with 2. Did all the damage with my 'info' at work got home and realised i was wrong. But to calm my suspicion i tracked (also recieved via n1 copy ability used on me) psycho and saw him kill diva. Lol

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I love this

Psych, let me try to validate my role tonight? If I can't, you can always kill me tomorrow. I hope my part in keeping you around has earned me that. There would be nothing that would cause a problem anyway, even if you went differently, because you're not validating the thread evidence so dar.. It's probably fine. Just rarely get a survive.

And if you don't, I'd look to the most likely traitor. I would guess there would be sufficient time to figure.

If the good guys don't win, I'd rather it be psych anyway. I respect his play up to this point.

Vote: val

It's a Psych Lives Party, Who Could Ask for More?
Everybody's comin', leave your body at the door
Leave your body and soul at the door

This is very dramatic.

I feel like I'm watching Excalibur.

Worth a shot.

Psych hasn't been a bad keep for me so far, so not thinking he's going to mysteriously switch. Willing to listen.

PsychoSoldier said:

I assume you mean the 50% chance to be blocked. Which makes sense and I figured that's probably built into the mechanic at least for the massblock from Pegasus, but it's the specific wording of him being hit by the mental attack. Normally if they survived the 50/50, they weren't hit by the block. So this flavor seemed to specifically imply that despite being hit, he was able to push through.

I think, in the least, it was a strongman kill.

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OK the combo makes sense to me now. I was missing the latter part.

And also:

PsychoSoldier said:

Ok, I'm here, looking at shit now

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You like looking at pieces of shit?

Yes. Read the language on the flavor one more time. Do you remember when I started making the standard mass rb for scum less powerful in my games? One might speculate that it might be something like that.

PsychoSoldier said:

Noted that Ur-Dragon specifically broke through the mass block. Do we think he's permanently unblockable or did he happen to use a strongman kill on that night?

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I don't think this is what you think it is.

Kitten afraid of my vote.

Don't worry. You're gonna get through this. I believe in you. I always have. That's why I'm here.

@VoidKitten

Hit us up with one of those sweet, sweet vote counts?

CWE said:

Come on now people. It's obvious who everyone is...2 people blocked and every town was active. And the SK is known.

So any vote that's not on Val, Mazer, or Psycho is scummy as hell.

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So mad about me testing something. The sobriety has already set in.

This is paranoid, but because I just want to test something

Vote: Tildey

You wouldn't expect vk not to have an out-clause for Psych.

I just played a league soccer game (indoor) for he first time since 2001.

The guy convincing me to play made it sound like a step up from beer league. I got there and people are warming up with the Maradona 7. But we gave up no goals in my 18 minutes lol.

Tildey said:

Why wait for Psycho? You're a good spreadsheeter. What does yours show?

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More elimination than i.think is feasible. Although in fairness, just started a new job and was around less to start. Didn't keep up with my comment notes as much because of that combined with start of school and activities. Back to activities for kids 7 nights/weekend days.

I'm going to try to clear myself tonight, but I understand the concern. And if I speak to someone specifically they'll pay more attention than a note to the group, if someone kills me.

Psych you should anticipate write-up tomfoolery/fakes. I suspect a traitor role at this point. I'd look for nights where a scum didn't act, and see if there are any non-explained actions or roles.

Although I looked and there's a few I like here



Definitely this guy

You passed the test proving sober cwe is here.

Drunk cwe would know I like gifs not emojis.

I appreciate the people who have gotten their reads out already.

Cwe is sober now. He should be able to remember to ping lettuce at 4.

CWE is against Speed everything.

Chess.....Eating.....Dating

Even Speed Racer himself

OK then

May be hit or miss today, so will leave my vote.

I do agree with everyone getting their lists out.

Vote: Matt

Crackleslap said:

I havent seen anything to clear Mazer and he has been on suspicious positions in vote trains and such.

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Hopefully I become more apparent soon.

I don't think it would have been the biggest thing for me to swing to psych on the psych vs. Cape night. I was conscious about my approach to questioning him in case people jumped anyway. People have seen me go all in on psych pushes before. Lost a decent amount, but better results than average.

But because I haven't led a good train, I understand the vetting.

Cracky is good. Psych is known. Cwe looks solid. Val looks OK. Xan has been targeted twice. Future may be gf. If it weren't for mtr, I would look harder there. Lettuce only really focused on kareemah before today

I need to reread him with listo revealed to see if anything else comes out

Cape is the scum who you can see early on was pushing an agenda.

The derps, self target, etc.

He's got the most clear behaviors

Xanjori said:

Because theyre letting you walk all over them lol. Youve killed two in the past two days while being "outed."

Its likely that theyve been hit by a mass RB and then a mass redirect looking at last two nights which could explain it. But otherwise its just...wild

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The mass rb doesn't even explain it, because 2 KILLS.

Claws...


I kid because I care

Xanjori said:

Someone explain to me why the fuck Psycho hasnt been targeted by red yet btw?

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They lost a bet?

I don't debate psych's logic. I think i have at least a little positive cred. I also think he's earned his stripes with me. I'm not for that move.

Because I know me, there is quite possibly subterfuge or something less probable.

I've considered future as gf. But I am curious about lettuce after yesterday.

I certainly don't hate it, combined with my earlier observation.

CWE possibly the one who comes out of yesterday looking the best.

Well that was comical.

I can make sure. Because I do think there's at least some consistency and the train feels OK.

Vote: kareemah

This modified majority confuses me.

We should at least be narrowed in scope with some good night moves.

And you didn't move already. So if kareemah is you are clean to me

llettuce said:

Is the vibes on that that I wouldn't move to lynch a teammate

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You guys going back and forth felt very organic

PsychoSoldier said:

Maybe they were worried about a bpv and would rather reduce numbers?

I dunno, like I don't disagree that scum could just be inactives left, but I also don't think Xan's reaction is some scumtell that makes me want to vote them if that's what you're trying to get at.

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Fair. Like I said, the flipping was a flag that I wondered about.

But he also had me scummy, so the read could have been because I was wondering about rationale.

If kareemah is, I move lettuce closer to town lock

llettuce said:

I guess we could always do psycho???

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If we think it's close, we should go for a kill on a possible red. Particularly if it can narrow options.

Right now, I don't lean you scum. Because it goes back to consistency and your earlier interactions.

PsychoSoldier said:

Not 100% what you were trying to point me towards Mazer, but the seeming mass block from Pegasus could explain why scum didn't block or otherwise interfere with me. If you're thinking that Xan's insistence means he's scum who knows they tried to target me last night, I think there's another interpretation of that which would clear Xan 100%

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I'm not sure I agree with that interpretation. Read the last couple.

And yeah. It's the telling me I was wrong and that it was explained when I said outside interference and two kills went through.

Maybe I'm wrong, but two kills and one is gc and not you gets me. Because why?

You were by far the least subtle yesterday.

I'm open to whether I'm overreading, UT the blatant "did you read" when it was certainly not apparent gets me.

Like I said, I'm not there today, but I wanted to see if I was being unfair before night phase.

PsychoSoldier said:

Are you talking about the discussion of night actions?

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Yeah

PsychoSoldier said:

And I don't get directly scummy vibes from Mazer's play so far. Like maybe I'm biased because he's just active in comparison and so seems to be solving, but overall you don't feel too manipulative, and feel like you'd maybe be making a bit stronger of a play to push me.

You could be biding your time, having hoped that you would have blocked or killed me, but it's not the first solution my brain jumps to.

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It's not like I haven't thought about it, because I have to. I mean, let's be at least a little honest there.

But there's a sexiness to trying to ride this dragon.

I'm not thinking this is probably the way to go, but can you read the exchange I asked cwe about and tell me if you think I missed anything?

PsychoSoldier said:

But then defaulting to Listo feels bad, and same for Kareemah

It's all shrug at this point, so it's hard to really choose what the best path is.

I also would feel bad if Val got subbed back in just to be chopped out.

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.....Are you trying to talk me into it?

Because how often do we get to even make a somewhat wary attempt to try to work together at a nice point? Once a year?

And after the last few games (for me), a fun one is needed

I'm not sure where to go there. My ok with val is more scum team theory based vs. actual player.

But I can't fucking read Val.

PsychoSoldier said:

I don't feel as good about chopping Val now

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If you're right on that, it means scum sat on a potential false lynch led by a validated you all day.

I'm not wanting to put blinders on, because it potentially backs my early theory.

PsychoSoldier said:

That could explain why Cape came in the thread unaware of his position, but then again, Claws was hella active, so if he peeked in scumchat he would know

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That's a bit of the conundrum. Claws was pretty active in the one scum chat (kingmaker) we did with him.

Cape had already done a "derp defense" early. I quoted that one above.

The chances that two were unintentional seem really low. Because I really don't know Cape, I'm not sure if they just pop in the thread or if that would be something they discussed. One of those paints early interactions in a different light, but I honestly don't know.

But the two kill explanation is my most persistent issue. Can someone make it make sense? Does it seem like a thing to do?

Cwe, do you have the same concern I do?

Xanjori said:

Well I assume they must have targeted him somehow, because you dont just let an SK run loose. But the red team was hit by some kinda interference

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Yeah, after the mass they still got stuff through. In a 2 kill set-up, when you have someone who, even if claws survived, was coming straight for him....I don't know how you don't prioritize that kill. Particularly when it's the biggest thread captain we have (When he wants to be).

Because this fact (which is exactly what I said when you seemed to think I missed it), cape being targeted and apparently trying to wolf, and a few other things lead me to make some assumptions on the team composition.

You kind of already laid out what I was intimating before.

Not that I don't trust your shot nigh as much as anyone but me (the Carmelo Hayes of Vigilantes). But the law of averages eventually plays out.

And still how would being outed, actually impact your wincon, etc, etc. Yadda Yadda.

Psych, are you comfortable tying your fate into not missing a shot, or is that an unrealistic ask?

I'd still like to hear from Val. The fact that psycho put it out there, and nobody jumped makes me feel a little better.

I wouldn't mind getting more clarification from Xan on where he saw the contradiction. I don't have probabilities difference, but I still don't have all complete eliminations.

I'm sorry. Not trying to be thick here, if I'm missing something obvious.

With what happened overall, because they still got kills through, and none was at Psych is where I'm surprised.

Stopping was the outside interference I was referring to. When you talked about not reading was there something else that leads you to believe that they were gunning for Psych.

Or are you saying that I'm wrong that psych wasn't targeted?

The part where they successfully killed someone other than psych when he telegraphed?

Are you saying you don't think scum has inactives?

Xanjori said:

I mean yes but the write-up would appear to instantly nuke your theory

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Which part?

The part where I said outside interference?

Xanjori said:

You not read the write-up? :D

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I did. Did you read that AND what I said?

I'm kind of on an inactive scum theory right now.

Because that would explain why psycho was able to survive and get his move through, short of outside interference working.

So both these are good for me.

I'd kind of like to see the lettuce kareemah rift settled as well.

If the current paths are incorrect, we should double back on people voting with no rationale, just sheeping other reads.

If it's in active, I'm going Val as it's the most pure example.

CWE said:

Top 4 today for me are: Psycho (outed evil), Mazer (2 maybe 3 red flags triggered), Listo (my heart pick), and Val (top sus person).



I don't know what to do.

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Who is going to win most consecutive mazer misreads?

You or foxxi?

It's a neck and neck battle right now.

Xanjori said:

Im still worried Pyscho has conned us and will win tonight. Part of me thinks we kill in one of the other 3 though and Psycho targets another there.

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Psych's saying he couldn't win after being outed still doesn't make any sense to me, because why would it make a difference?

But his action last night was really telegraphed, and it helped.

The pop ins with no rationale are interesting. Val does that. listo hasn't been back. Kareemah is probably independent of Val and lettuce.

Future is clear.

I'm not thinking lettuce vs. Kareemah is faked right now

Cape90 said:

Lemme ask you this then

Why would mafia defend me if I was mafia then? I was being widely townread day 1, they would be more concerned about other members sying unless they were ALL townread.

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Interesting. Maybe it was?

Or perhaps he was looking to clear so he could be the wolf

Cape90 said:

I think both Claws and Matthieu look better by looking at page 10

I still am skeptical though of Matthieu because of the whole immunity thing until now though so I am not opposed to that idea

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Claws and Matt together. Chose to pursue matt more

Cape90 said:

So there was night chat open? Oops, I just saw it was night 2 then just... didn't post because it was night 2 and didn't look back

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This looks an interesting possible "derp" attempt. +1 to xan for calling it out shortly thereafter

Cape90 said:

So overall this is where I am at

MTR (revived)
Cracklestep

3puppies
Xanjori

GrumpyCat
PyschoSoldier
Claws

CWE
Blind Ninja

Matthieu
Mazer
WindwardAway

llettuce
Kareemah
Val
FutureHold
Listo
Tidley

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Interesting full lost. We know claws was still trying, and Interesting because he has claws higher.

Mazer said:

I think this may have been cape's last list before he was discovered.

Looking through it seems like there might be some reasonable strategy assumptions, because he was really pushing the "I was targeted" narrative. And now we have two data points.

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So reading again, his list was actually after mtr came out but while he was still trying.

Xanjori said:

For some reason my gut reckons Listo/Val/Mazer could all be hits

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What is your rationale for me. I'm interested in a few on your list. And a couple more.

Do you feel good about kareemah and cwe?

Cape90 said:

Crackleslap still feels really towny, Xanjori does to, but the ladder means Xanjori is wolfing. (I don't believe this read)

Psycho has felt very towny recently

and finally WWA is trending a bit down for me, could see them being deepwolf, the way they handled me gave me the heeby jeebies, stuff after that felt ~fine but a bit coasty ig

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I think this may have been cape's last list before he was discovered.

Looking through it seems like there might be some reasonable strategy assumptions, because he was really pushing the "I was targeted" narrative. And now we have two data points.

I'm going back through and looking to see if there were momentum swings.

You'd have to assume some split, and we've got some cleaned up identities so curious on who was pushed against.

Of the two outlier votes, one feels a little better.

You really should use like an advent calendar or one of those construction paper chains.

CWE said:

I'm 50/50 on which way I'm going today. Head or heart, people? And yes, by heart, I mean liver.

And also, I will be spreadsheeting today. Since when this day ends, none of you will see ME for 30 days.

Welcome to hell!

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Oh shit. This snuck up on me

This is not a drill people. I repeat, this is not a drill.

llettuce said:

thanks val

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I never know what to make of Val pop up votes.

What do you think of kareemah?

Kareemah said:

So if me, psycho, lettuce, and crackle are safe who does that leave?

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Quick jump on lettuce based on psych's gut only ?

Any other reason?

Matthieu said:

I'm willing to put my trust in Psycho since he kept his word. Taking him out this day phase would only serve to waste time that could be better spent looking elsewhere.

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Agree. He should survive except for a pure crapshoot for the foreseeable.

Is anyone sheeting? What are we getting count wise?

PsychoSoldier said:

Told ya

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Look at Mr I told you so

BPVs were always going to win. The uncertainty of the hit (I hear most people actually miss occasionally) on scum. That combined with another big percentage on a miss or backfire vs. the certainty of a BPV.

Even when things have equal probabilities most people choose to avoid a loss vs. a potential gain. Classic behaviorial economics. Kahneman and Tevorsky would have a field day here.

But if someone thinks one way of the other would have an AI, would love to hear it.

PsychoSoldier said:

All these posts are in response to or about Xanjori:

Spoiler

[\spoiler]

Kinda torn here. It's a lot of interaction if they're partners, but also a lot of it feels pretty softballed. Don't get the feeling from Cape's side they're truly evaluating each other, but I'd have to look at Xan's side to confirm that. Worth looking into, not sure it nets anything.

Also a couple of these posts might clear Grumpy. I remember Grumpy was Cape's primary push on d1, and the fact he tried to shade me for joining that wagon reads like scum who knows I'm targeting town so has the room to make that flip.

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I don't hate this. You know cape better than me, but didn't necessarily strike as a go for the team right away. Particularly if you are new to group.

PsychoSoldier said:

This reaction, I should specify, look like he's desperately trying to draw shots to me. Town wants me dead but town knows I'm fucked and mostly can't do shit. So scum clearly wants people to shoot me instead of Cape, who probably grabbed a bpv, so that if we chop him today, he lives. The potential kill threat against them is gone and Cape gets one more night to act.

I don't think just pushing me or saying I need to die is scummy automatically. I think emphatically pleading for people to shoot me instead of Cape is just as scum motivated as pushing to chop me instead of Cape.

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I can see this point. But I still don't think anyone should allow you to oversell that later. Your words have burned me before.

But please know that I say that with the deepest appreciation for the art involved.

PsychoSoldier said:

Mazer's being a bit thick about it, but it's ok. I literally have nothing to gain by trying to lie about my solve. I'll die eventually and maybe you can learn to accept my help from.the grave.

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What am I specifically being inaccurate on?

Tildey said:

None that I can share.

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Stumpin is great. Congrats. That's actually my favorite.

GrumpyCat said:

Do you really think scum would kill their buddy counting there will be a rez mechanic that it will be MTR who would get picked and use a cannibal kill on top of that that would let them see their pole while others wouldnt? To get a role they already know?

MTR could be wrong about Cape but if he is red then it is 4d chess indeed.

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No. And because of that that's why that's the one I support over Psych.

But I have also seen people resurrected into different roles, recruits, and hidden busdrivers. So, I don't rule out the 3-5% odds completely until I have reason to. Like Cape's kill being accurate would shift from 95 to 100 basically.


Catching up since last night now btw.

Claws said:

JUst curious what you meant by prioritys @Mazer

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Just order of threat. The team is typically more worrisome than the one.

I do actually agree with CWE's default scale on sks and 3rd parties overall

I usually work in a series of threats. I'm not sure how Psych wouldn't be a threat, so he'd have to be eliminated at some point.

But I tend to default to prioritizing red.


I think given the potential for reads at night play. People should list out some of their priorities right now.

We've already looked at the relative plus and minus on a faw.

I want to get some deep reads out before this time ends.

4d chess. Deep conspiracy.

If mtr is wrong on cape, I would be very concerned about the people who pick up a thread on his defense. I would be very suspicious of most tactical scum minds, as a potential partner. it would be part of a deep game to force a kill.

That's only if mtr is wrong, and I don't see that as a probable given that cape seemed already under suspicion. I just want to make sure that nobody writes it off, as I already feel I've seen the seeds for potential excuses to be portrayed as definite.

I'm actually ok with Psych's initial logic, but I don't like him starting to paint too deeply that people who weren't willing to listen to him were more likely scum. If he keeps surviving, I would caution that nobody LET him push that too hard. There's going to likely come a time that dealing with Psych may be the smart play. And if he tries to shoot down any discussion of that, he should not be allowed to pass.

Cape90 said:

man cant a person sleep and go to college

crazy thoguht i know

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Right now, I'm comfortable putting my vote on cape and seeing what plays out with Tom Holland

But going forward if I had less than a 50/50 shot, I would absolutely sacrifice psych first.

This is so hard. I absolutely expect the standard n3 kill my way. But my vig shots are sexy as fuck.

3puppies said:

This is why, for the good of town, you should post your whole role card. It would assuredly get you modkilled and save us the hassle.

All of us town could wish that you get included as an honorable mention in the winning team writeup for supporting town

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Just logging on today. I only have a few minutes before I'm gone for two hours.

But this would have definitely modkilled psych

I started doing it less in my games, because it seemed to unlikely to hit

But a longer one, or until it scores once would remove that problem.

It's an interesting balance thought

Crackleslap said:

Is it possible (if there is) a frame on Cape, the action lasts longer than one day/night phase?

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It's usually 1 in rajah, but I'm not sure if void does it different.

If he did do that, I'm definitely going to steal it in a future game I run.

Positively incorrigible, that guy

PsychoSoldier said:

I also doubt there's another 3p threat if she is 3p because, well...you know.

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Oh.....you rascal

3puppies said:

Reconsidering this.

If we don't yeet Psycho, presumably Exodia kills again tonight. And if he survives because of a BPV or iron collar, as he alluded to, he kills again, which would make 4 kills for Exodia and possibly his wincon.

He's a threat that must be blocked if he is not yeeted. Especially since there are other shenanigans at play - like hidden wishes that HE might win, or other games, etc., where he could potentially win additional toys.

And since the wish granter is also 3rd party, he's not necessarily inclined to grant a wish that would help town.

We don't know that wishing to vanillla-ize psycho or stump him would even be granted.

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Agree with this. There's a reason that sks are typically viewed as a threat.

They will usually kill more town. It's the odds.

We can discuss order, but there's no way you let psych with a kill and wincon keep killing.

PsychoSoldier said:

I take that as a high compliment

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You should. I mean it as such. I think Tom is the quintessential movie Spider-Man

And also, Tom can go dark when things happen. Like when he was about to kill Norman

He's not the Saint Andrew Garfield (cwe) is.

PsychoSoldier said:

I'm not like Matthieu where I can lie in your face with a smile. I'm too honest of a dude. I'm caught with no way out and the jig is up. So I want to at least have some fun with the situation and either force scum to waste kills on me or take them out before they can.

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Alright, I'm trying to talk it though with you, but you have definitely been a dastardly villain before.

Hell, we've done it together.

We're just too classy for ATE.

PsychoSoldier said:

Oooh, that's not a bad thought honestly

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One possibility in a myriad. Think it's probable?