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Forever regretting not shooting Foxxi on D1

Great job, scum. Y'all played this well and even though we got one of you, it was basically game over.

Mazer said:

Did you try to block a kill at listo last night?

Good job scum

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I did

Fuck me

Satsu said:

So would you rather see Claws yeeted over Nightingale or it makes no differnse to you?
I know it is not exactyly a democracy but as i know Val he could take votes into consdieration so why not vote?

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Nah, I prefer Claws. I'm beginning to wonder about Night's theory that us three are all town. I'm not sure if I fully buy it, but I'm kind of back to thinking Mazer is just town while also not feeling any better about Claws.

Vote: Claws

Sorry if wrong, but I think the thoughts have been too inconsistent for me to come to you being town

I like you too, Claws, and feel awful if you're town. Which is why I haven't immediately voted yet. But someone's gotta go eventually.

llettuce said:

Well unless it's really elaborate theatre I'm guessing claws and mazer aren't on scum together, and I'm not sure if this scum!mazer who feels cornered or town!mazer who is defensive

And to his credit I don't know his playstyle enough to know.

And whether or not you normally use percentages and probability, I think the scum feel is that I just can't imagine rhe math is right. Maybe it's just I'm bad at math and can't imagine a world where someone is good at it so to me it looks like posturing.

I'm at dinner so this is from my skim, if there is something specifically you want me to respond to please direct me to it.

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I'm basically at Mazer is either town or they're partnered together. Before I dipped from thread last night and vaguely skimmed that they were going back and forth, I was thinking how they might go all in on distancing since one of them is most likely to lead the votes. But I honestly just kind of...buy Mazer's side?

Mazer said:

My concern with you is that you came in with me, a person who has not been king and doesn't have a bad kill to my name, and stated I have been agendy and focused on just foxxi and psych.

This pings because I actually did listen when Psych said I might be wrong about future replying as a force. I made sure that I had interactions with literally every other poster to see if I could pick something up. It really doesn't feel like I overfocused. It is fair that I've produced a lot of content, but that should give people specific things to find.

And then instantly llettuce came in with a reason that everyone who knows me knows is wrong, not but 10 minutes later.

And you and I were the only two picking up attention at that point.

Certainly you see my concern?

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Damn you Mazer

Unvote: Mazer

I swear to God if you're scum and I let you go for this I'm never gonna forgive myself

Mazer said:

@PsychoSoldier

How are you liking the rationales that have joined you on my train? Do you feel good with the way it came about?

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I'd argue that it's a bit unlikely that both Claws and llettuce are scum by how quickly they teamed up and the fact that llettuce's vote came in response to Claws asking her about the alignment of all of them.

I still don't feel great about Claws and honestly feel worse about his takes than llettuce's.

Mazer said:

Right now, I could see psych there's at least as good a chance as he's scum.as town, based on what I have him elimination from.


But I also think llettuce and claws may have FINALLY overplayed their hand to try to get this through.

I actually maybe feel a little more confident about llettuce given timing and rationale. But I'm also good with claws.

Right now, I feel best about Lora and listo as town.

And I don't hate that Val has forced a vote, when he probably could have just slipped a kill through.

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I also like that Val opted for a vote rather than going by his own whims. Especially since his vote is clearly someone the rest of the game aren't ready to execute.

Mazer said:

If you see me green, does that change your satsu read?

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Not really? Especially because if you're town, I feel Satsu might have leaned into pairing up with me to vote you. I'd look at lettuce first, tbh. The reasoning on you was ok from an outside perspective, but can definitely see hers as a pile-on vote if you're town

llettuce said:

Scum order: Mazer, Foxxi, Psych

I think its the substance thing for me on mazer, hes also been really into probability which for some reason rubs me the wrong way
Foxxi just feels a little off
Psych i think im ok with, but yeah this could all be theatre

Im also now slightly sus of claws but not like too much

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Can you explain the "substance thing" for me if you already haven't?

Nightingale said:

I don't think I've been centered on them at all. I've given my opinions of them both, and engaged with them, but I've not ignored the rest of the game by any means.

Ngl this gives me tinfoil....makes me feel like it was planned.... if we three are all town leaving us all alive so we yeet each other off a cliff at end game in paranoia feels like a very claws move. And considering I still don't think either of psycho or Mazer are wolves...

Vote: Claws

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Where do you stand now on the "If one of us are scum" argument? As in do you think it's more likely to be me or Mazer?

Oh god this thread exploded while I was gone

Gonna try and catch up before the deadline

Claws said:

ill be frank im not gunna post a huge essay style post just to look towny that has never been claws and it never will be

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I don't expect a huge essay style post, that's fine. But your list earlier had zero reads other than considering me/Mazer/Night a headache that needs to be solved. While that's valid, it didn't really feel like you had an interest in solving anyone else and just wanted to further the narrative about scum being within us 3. Between that and D1, I don't remember you ever really giving any reads or calling for anyone to get scum, and hardly any townreads. In my experience, Town!Claws usually has one or two reads that they're constantly discussing and pushing for over the course of a few days.

Your explanations after the fact are fine and at least show you not just blindly saying there's a suspect in one of us, but that came after being needled about it.

I can't see myself being wrong on you, especially if both Mazer and Night are scum, but when you've spent so much time between now and the beginning of the game just kind of floating with no pronounced worldview, it doesn't make me jump to calling you town.

So do you think all 3 scum are me, Mazer, and Nightingale? You prefer Mazer first, but if he's scum, who are the next two people you look at?

Satsu
Lora
llettuce

Listo
Val

Claws
Mazer/Nightingale

Ok, I think the kills this game have been very calculated. I think scum have specifically kept me/Mazer/Nightingale alive to Spider-Man point, but the fact none of us are dead makes me think it is because one of us IS scum. And I've seen enough red flags from both of them to think they're both clean.

I still want to reread Mazer, but I want to reiterate that a lot of his content, off memory, has been consistently discrediting others' reasons for townreading underwhelming slots. Future being a prime example, and considering I'm townreading Satsu, his track record isn't really helping my perception. His takes on MTR seem inordinately focused on me and it comes off like he's been waiting for the right chance to start actively suspecting me. The flip side is that some of his solving today seems more involved than some might expect, but he's also at the point where he kind of has to in order to avoid accusations of floating or stirring the pot.

Nightingale's takes today make me feel like they are more likely to come from town? But I also can't help but feel like she ended up coming up with an excuse to shoot someone kinda random. The way she was at Claws/llettuce/Satsu, to then talking about MTR and Listo, to then Lora and Future, to quickly honing in on future with a couple justification posts and then the shot. Not 100% sure what motivation she has as scum to avoid some of the previous names, but I also can't shake the feeling that she felt a need to justify the shot on Future rather than it being actual solving. Her patterns of posting are a bit harder to reconcile as scum, so if theres town between her and Mazer, I think I'm at the point of thinking it's her. But we need to be careful of clearing one after killing the other if that happens.

I don't feel like Claws has investment in actually solving his reads. D1 was his most solvey, and past that, it's been a lot of reactionary takes that he doesn't even hold onto. The fact he today is just calling Me/Mazer/Night headaches and is focusing on solving in there feels like scum trying to stir that pot. If that is the case, it's probably only one of us in that 3 which is scum which is why he'd have the confidence to do so, while also getting some distance points from whoever is the scum there. Just can't really see claws as actually caring about who gets killed or having any personal reads he believes in, when I feel he usually has like one or two pet reads that he clings to from early on. I'm not seeing that here, instead just vague gesturing towards the trimuvirate of top posters.

I just think Satsu is town. For all the things I've said in previous phases, the fact MTR was killed over Listo or Val, and the fact that I feel we've been very much on the same page the last couple phases. I think he's been a scapegoat scum has been preying upon.

Lora is Lora, but I also still think his stance on people shading him is more likely to come from a town Lora who believes his shit rather than scum with an excuse.

llettuce could be scum and I hesitate to go too hard to defend her...but I think her general presence the last couple phases has just been a bit too prominent and varied for her scum meta. She can fake some content, but usually only when prompted, and even then I think it usually scrapes the bare minimum barrel and instead focuses on shitposting. I don't think we're getting much of that here, and while some might argue she's still only scraping the minimum, it just...feels different?

If all scum are not in Mazer/Night/Claws, I think one of Val or Listo could have scum. I originally thought Val was kingmaker, but that clearly wasn't the case. And with Listo actually playing like a Pr and doing himself no favors to stay alive...he's the one I'd trust to actually be PR between the two. I also struggle to see my bottom three all being scum, so...if I'm right about PR guesses, Val could be the baddie here.

So yeah, I think Claws and one of Mazer/Nightingale is likely to contain 2 scum. If the 3rd isn't found in that pile, I'd look between Val, llettuce, and Lora, probably in that order.

Mazer said:

Time for an MTR deep dive. This is the kill that most intrigues because he was theoretically on nightingale's chopping block, potential miskill and he got killed.

Mtr is rand, but not completely. Day 1 though. Maybe something. Could quite possibly be nothing



day 1 mtr, etc etc



Day 1 standard mtr tripe. Claws does love him some mtr

claws on mtr early


Still, but in fairness, this is not uncommon for claws early

mtr or jarrod. Did end up going Jarrod. In fairness to both reads, not sure Psych could have been reading too strong at this point.





This is all kinda fair . And I don want to acknowledge that Psych pretty much always gives you the most material. He is why I stopped doing word usage penalties as a scum ability.





Psych with mtr over future when it's starting to get another read for many of us. Would he have had a reason at this point? Is it possible he was still starting to look at that option.










There's several back and forths here, and I'm not sure mtr is all the way established. Psych had some pressure. I was interested vetting. The important thing I think within this exchange is his POE. mtr obviously wouldn't be thinking "hero" like everyone else. If scum was trying to find one, are they like Psych and think he's the next biggest claimer? Is psych telling them that?

There's a possibility I'm reading listo wrong, and if he did flip, I think there's some significance here.










There is some calling out with mtr here. Claws is on the shot list. I'd ask Satsu about his reads, and reluctance to give reasons. But we all know he's not going to answer me or anyone else while I'm alive.

Foxxi does swing back and forth to mtr. I'm not sure that she actually seems like she's more on him then anyone else yet,



In retrospect, could this post have put people on him?

In fairness, Satsu showed some restraint on Listo. Of course, so did Psych. And other people. it's not like this was an uncommon tact. I also enjoy that there is no rationale here, and that he was off on mtr, but this only increased his confidence to his new short list having 3 scum.

This POE is worth holding onto for later.

Like Don't ignore this if I go.


Now it narrows to the hero and those a lot of people were thinking. I missed it, but this worries me.


Mtr and Listo. Psych,



I think this shows Psych may have been at least considering mtr as interesting to psych.

Obviously, this is only relevant in a world where Listo is town.

In fairness, if he is it's pretty relevant.

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Maze, what conclusions do you get from this? I feel there are some theories thrown out, but no concrete "This makes me feel good/worse about X."

Mazer said:

@PsychoSoldier

How do you feel about Listo now?

@Nightingale

Also curious about your read.

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I still kinda think his schtick is because he's PR, just not the one I thought it was

I'll try to go over your MTR stuff tomorrow, but I also want to look for myself. I also want to look back at your posts

@Listo95 I get you believe you're the towniest town, but can you share thoughts on who the least towny is?

llettuce said:

I could get behind this, hes been playing very jestery but wasnt the hero

Has he given us anything other than "towniest town"

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Well he's not the hero so that takes away his cred. There's another PR he could be so I'm not jumping to "he's scum," but it takes away a lot of the credibility I was giving him.

When I said that makes me like them more, I was talking about Satsu

Mazer, is there anyone that you trust or townread even in the slightest? It feels like you've consistently discredited people's reasons to townread others(like my read on Future), but have not given any people you trust yourself

I think Satsu and I were both thinking Listo might be the hero, so that only makes me feel better there considering MTR was the kill

We have to shoot right today or we'll be in LYLO tomorrow. I think we need to officially get everyone on a vote for who they think should be eliminated, even if Val goes rogue and doesn't follow it.

I think I might try and look at how people treated MTR.

I still want to think that Val's vibes were towny early on even if he's not kingmaker

@Listo95

We need thoughts.

Damn, that means MTR would have been the optimal shot yesterday. Maybe that's why he wasn't really solving much because he kinda wanted to get shot

Not completely sure if Night would kill MTR while actively trying to theorize against him?

Oh Jesus, I thought Val was kingmaker

Welp, that theory is starting to go.

Also I'm gonna be honest and say I got baaaad vibes from that last minute Future shot

Nightingale said:

1. Claws - psycho, listo
2. FutureHold
3. Listo - listo
4. Lora
5. Llettuce - future
6. Mazer - lora, mtr
7. MTR - lettuce, lora, future, mazer
8. Nightingale - mazer, future, psycho, val, lora
9. Psycho666Soldier - lora, future, satsu, mazer, val
10. Satsu - psycho, val, future, lora
11. Val the Moofia Boss - me(lol don't axe myself) and mazer

These were the answers I got for who people wouldn't want to shoot. I don't think future ever answered me now that I look back at my notes. Lora didn't really either, but that is lora. Lora and future are tied at 5. Those numbers are going to consist of town - but odds are scum are going to list at least one person they are partners with and future and lora having the most people speaking in their favor. Thoughts?

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Ehhh, I think this is something to consider if we found either one of them as scum, but wouldn't really use it as a decision of who to shoot?

Nightingale said:

I don't fucking know right now. I hate claws today, but maybe that makes him actually town, satsu seems off, but the only person trying to even sort of defend satsu is psycho - so unless psycho is a wolf with him that means theoretical wolf satsu has teammates that aren't bothering to try to save him? Lettuce seems town, but I don't fully trust that read after the last game either? But then...I kinda feel like there would be more opinions of who to pick of the three if any of them are wolves... but if *none* of them are.... then who the fuck is?



Maybe I just shoot MTR/listo?

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I wouldn't hate you for an MTR shot. Part of me wants to buy the "I'm not the right choice" stuff, but off memory I don't think he's given any kind of takes or anything this phase.

I'd rather wait until tomorrow for Listo, so unless you feel sure about it, I don't think that's the right call.

llettuce said:

Nah its kinda just his whole thing, like very insistent that if you think they are scum for any reason then you must be scum. I just don't think they are that obvious of a mislynch for that to be the case. But.... I don't play with lora often so I don't know if this is how they normally play

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This is very much how Lora normally plays

Honestly, I totally see his angle. If he's town, using his bad shot against him is ammo for scum. And I want to say the insular focus is more often town-indicative than not.

Mazer said:

You and foxxi say that. And I've seen more passive listo. Last game he definitely made efforts to be seen as active. But given how well this game has gone for scum, I'm wary. This would be the type of game, I think he's more likely to set back in.

But I really don't fucking know at this point.

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It's not about him being passive or not, but it's about my thought on why he's specifically been saying some of the things he's been saying. But that's not an excuse to hang back, which is why I'm saying if he doesn't improve by the next phase, I'm not really willing to keep buying my theory.

Mazer said:

I'm still without a strong read on Foxxi, and suffering from the "Her or Psych possibly....please not both".

But I honestly expected someone to make a big fuck-up yesterday. There has been a lot of consistency, so whatever the composition of the scum team, I'm feeling really confident that there's at least one person who runs a tight ship. Psych said he was townreading too many people, and I'm worried because I'm the opposite. I'm struggling to clear anyone.

The one exception I was waiting for to see if I was wrong about one of my void reads came through. So, I have no reason to retract it at this point.

Satsu continuing to ignore Psych, even though Psych himself acknowledges his rationales aren't good still pings me. . It feels agenda driven. I'm trying not to get blinders on, but nothing has caused me to question.

I'm also continually worried about listo sliding by. But is that actually AI?

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I have reasons for thinking that Listo might be on the up and up but I really want to see more from him tomorrow or else I don't think I can defend him much.

Satsu said:

Why cant they both be? But chill you cant be king soon so the paranoia shouldnt be on you.

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I literally just explained it?

Assuming Foxxi shoots Claws and he's scum, I think that's a clear for get since she had all the reason and room to shoot llettuce and Satsu. If all 3 are town, my tinfoil comes back strong, but I'm not sure we even get to that point before game over.

llettuce said:

Fr I am very worried that are usual powerhouses are all scum and we are all just following along

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I don't know if I think both Foxxi and Mazer are scum. That sounds...scary. I could see a world where they both have been playing sort of a good cop/bad cop angle with me on d1 the way they both questioned my reads but had different approaches(Mazer respectfully questioning, Foxxi taking the stance of outright scumreading me), but I also kind of feel if it's both of them, we've probably already lost.

Satsu said:

Seriously? You dont like my poe? Whats you take?

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Sorry, that wasn't meant to imply I didn't like the rest. More that the Val read stood out, and I kinda feel if you had that take coming into D3, that Val would have already been dead. I guess you could be roleblocking him, but eh.

I'm not exactly a fan of Mazer being in there as I think most of his input this phase has been in line with what I expect of town Mazer, but there's still the paranoia that one of Foxxi/Mazer has a scum in it.

Also, didn't realize the deadline was extended past 48 hours, so that's cool

Satsu said:

I made a post where I said why i think toy lean town, Val because I can read Val in some way and i think I have him as TPR. FH is a tone read, dont know where else to look but is just like town FH from last game not scummy at all.

I don't want to talk about my feeling toward Listo at the moment.

Rest of my PoE: Claws Lettuce Mazer MTR is because I have a town read on other players. Those are valid kills for today. There are 2 scum in there.

I will tell you an updated list tommorow.

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Well it looks like we're on the same page for Val at least

Or maybe it was this phase. This post

Satsu said:

I dont want to see Psycho/Val/FH eliminated today.

I know i oew you an analysis on Psycho or what that was. Coming soon.

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I'd also like to know why you had Future and Val as town last phase

Satsu said:

Whitch part? My PoE or why Listo today?

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Both

Little over an hour left for Foxxi to make her shot

I guess of her choices I prefer Claws for the shot. I'm...not really sure if llettuce's recent rush of posting is just her maybe spamming content to make up for her lack of presence, but I do think it's more than we usually get from her when she's cornered scum. I also liked the updated read on Claws which came off like she actually went and looked at him after saying she has no real read there.

Satsu said:

Yes and MTR and you. listo could be best shot acually.

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Are you around to answer why you feel this way?

PsychoSoldier said:

Jesus, am I that bad at communicating?

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Not a shot at you, Claws, I just feel my posts have been misinterpreted multiple times the game

Jesus, am I that bad at communicating?

Claws said:

so in your eyes we are all scum?

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That's not what I said

It doesn't help that I want to like Foxxi's big reads post and like she said, we have melded on enough things this phase that I don't feel great about scumreading her, which makes me think I'm terribly wrong somewhere else.

And the sheer disappointment I think most of us will feel if Lora is scum and we just let him get a pass.

Mazer said:

Foxxi was leaning claws, satsu, and llettuce.

I'm curious who people would remove from that group.

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It's hard for me to say. I think there's probably a scum between Claws/llettuce, but they both have said some things this phase that make me doubt. I think Claws is the one I'm most worried about for things I said yesterday and a lot of what Foxxi said there. But also lettuce hasn't quite done enough/been around enough for me to feel she fully deserves a pass, as she can do pretty decent at bullshitting out some stuff last second when pressured.

Of the three I would take Satsu out, but not feeling as confident about it as before because I feel like I'm townreading too many people and not actively scumreading enough people and unless some of my stronger feelings are right(the people I've argued are town, Foxxi or Claws being scum), then I'm terribly wrong on one of my townreads and I'm not sure which one it is.

Mazer said:

This is the best counterpoint to my thoughts on future I've seen. I'm thinking about this one, as I did not read that chat.

I mean, I'm not sure that his takes were so in-depth as to be a huge jump, and people usually give me something when I ask nicely. It's an interesting theme on coaching coming up. And I do think this scum team seems sound. They've avoided big mistakes at this point. Which is simultaneously engaging my interest and frustrating the fuck out of me.

I do not hate this post from you.

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I get where you feel his takes aren't enough to be considered towny or even maybe you don't think it's a big leap from reasoning he's given as scum before. But for me, I genuinely believe you could look at Future's last 10 scum games and be hard pressed to find more than 2 posts per game, this early, that compare or amount to the same or more than what he's given here.

Like I said, coaching is possible and I don't think Future is like 100% never scum here. But it would require some fringe worlds that go against what I know about Future as scum for me to flip my read.

Mazer said:

Do you not see my point with future (I already know you don't agree with Satsu)? Am I off for not giving the same participation points you and foxxi are, given the prompts?

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I don't. I would be more convinced of Satsu being scum tbh. My whole issue with your take on Future is that I genuinely believe scum Future wouldn't have given as much as he did when prompted. Usually when he's prompted, he'll avoid the question or give a dismissive non-answer. I would have to believe that he's suddenly drastically improved, gained a new confidence, or is being coached really well.

Like I said last game, he literally said in wolf chat in a recent game that he didn't want to post in thread because he's get caught. Even when pushed by his team, he neglected to post any real content. The content he's given here may have been prompted and lacking in comparison to other more verbose people, but it's a far cry from what I've come to expect from him as scum, prompted or otherwise.

Unvote: llettuce

I don't even know man

llettuce said:

Sorry I think my notifications are not right, i see i got tagged like 3 times and did not get any emails, and also had a weird day, catching up now


I don't like this, I was already iffy about fast day, but then to claim they just aren't working to benefit town in anyway, idk why you would open wolf like that so maybe he's just fucking around???????? And someone mentioned might be worth keeping around just because he can't be king again, but if he happens to be kill capable scum does it matter?

Ik he said he was working, but I want to see more from listo, I don't know if I can make a judgement, but I wasn't really into the gimmick

I'm neutral on claws, just guys being guys idk

While if town I understood why mtr might put the whole I'd probably kill Tildey, but I don't think it's the best look not willing to outright call it open wolfing buy it sure is not my favorite

Overall feeling very unfortunate about my reads because someone has to be scum and I am not secure in any of these

Happy 2 am will try to hop in b4 work

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How do you feel about MTR's townread on you?

Listo95 said:

1. Claws - gut says slight scum
2. FutureHold - slight town
3. Listo - towniest town to town
4. Lora - Lora
5. Llettuce - null
6. Mazer - slight town
7. MTR - slight scum
8. Nightingale - slight scum
9. Psycho666Soldier - slight town
10. Satsu - null
11. Val the Moofia Boss - null

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Can you elaborate on any of these? I'm most curious about Future, MTR, and Night

I'm ok with my vote on lettuce for now

And I would like @FutureHold's answer to Claws last post

Claws said:

if you were so sure it was a scum read why didnt you man up and shoot

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Because it was D1 and I didn't want to kill Night if I was wrong.

Claws said:

i like val he seems like a cool guy
i answered some of this earlyier your not terrible
the fox is ok for meow
mazer is agendy still dont really like him
satsu idk i dont read him well
lora is an idiot
mtr probably scum
future idk why he has such a hardon for me like give it a rest
lettus is poor iso
Listo is the towniest supposably ? probably scum?
if i missed any1 else idk im just not really focusing on ppl not playing

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Do you think Future's hard-on is scum indicative?

(Also, take that comment out of context)

Same with your llettuce read. Is that a scum read?

Claws said:

it is but i didnt think youd just keep bringin her up for 3 days man

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Did you expect me to just drop the scumread?

Mazer said:

If you get blood on you, you might get a nasty infection.

Best I got.


But I'm putting on record that I'm still peaked on future and satsu. Not to 70 percent yet. But they have things that make me feel are not organic.

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Which do you feel stronger about, and do you think they're both scum?

Claws said:

the chat has mostly been placed around you the fox and mazer "top players" as you will and its getting tiresome just hearing this ill give you the benifit you have proded some ppl but im just not feeling it. it always reverts to you three

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I feel that we've all been trying to get others to talk and you have the second highest amount of posts in thread. I think we're all willing to listen to your reads. You're part of the reason I chose not to kill Foxxi on d1. So it's not like others aren't giving input.

Nightingale said:

Does anyone have any good reasons I shouldn't shoot claws?

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I'ma be honest, these recent posts skeeve me out. Feels like he was trying to egg me on against you, and the way he jumped at my Mazer read feels very reach-y like he's trying to find something to shade me for.

Claws said:

how does every1 feel about not foxxi or psycho its like 2 days of just them and its goin nowhere

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Explain this

Mazer said:

Yes. We've both seen how not everyone gets the same reaction when they even mention people. So, I think often assume the safest option is to hold course unless they're pushed more extensively. And Satsu is savvy.

Foxxi, I'm going back and forth on. She had a mild ping on one thing day 1, but she pulled it back some.

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To clarify, I'm not arguing that scum!Satsu couldn't play like this. But I do heavily think it's unlikely that he would.

Claws said:

thats the problem leaving her up after your d1 dabacle if you shot you would never have that what if

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You were literally one of the people who said it would be better to shoot a lowposter

It would be great if Night just domed a wolf today and it be a spicy one and I don't have to worry about it, though

Everyone knows my feelings on Night. I think she had a scummy d1 and D2 was sort of a mixed bag for me. I don't think if Mazer is town, then Night is automatically scum because it's also possible scum is just playing clever without either of them being on the team. But if I'm right about the kills and there is scum between them, I think it's more likely Night.

That's irrelevant for today because she has the axe but that's basically my whole thought process on that theory.

Claws said:

WTF so is he scum or not what kinda vague take is this

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My progression on Mazer has been clear. I liked him coming into today, had some doubt because of the kills, but overall think the way he's played today is more likely town. Which is what I ended that post with. There's nothing vague about it.

The main thing making me not think Mazer is scum here is I feel he's taking more actual stances today than I would expect from scum!Mazer. Not that he can't fake that, but I think Mazer tends to play as someone who throws ideas into the ether and let's them fester for town to eat itself alive. I got vibes of that from how he's been talking about Satsu, but I also feel he would maybe be focusing more on that and not so much bothering with the other reads he's dropped? This is almost certainly a faulty read but it's what my gut is telling me.

Let me be more specific: how do you feel about Nightingale in the world that you 100% know I'm town?

Mazer said:

Every time I get off you a little, you go and ping my radar again.

I have never actually gotten you lynched with that argument, and really never expect to. Suspicion, sure. But even Darkest Timeline Mazer couldn't get you lynched with that. My actual strategy play when I need to take you on is much more compelling and fun. But we both know I would just plan on needing to do it as a shot, because you tend not need to be lynched.

My theory on scum is that they have a strong player. I've played kingmaker once and because I was teamed with Psycho and Claws we had a good strategy. We realized that really only numbers and influence were important. To the point that we let two of the strongest players in that game, vk and cwe, live.

And because of that I'm still suspicious of my old teammates. But I'm not sure that strategy was rocket science.

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Hold up. I'm not saying you'd use that argument to get me lynched. I'm saying that if you're scum and you kill me and Foxxi early on, that makes it more likely that town will start to question why you're still alive and they aren't. Which I think you're implying with the third paragraph. So in that sense we're on the same page.

With that, how do you feel about Nightingale?

@llettuce come share thoughts as well

Mazer said:

Could it have been self-pres motivated?

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I don't really think so? I assume you're saying he changed tune on me because you and Foxxi felt differently about me and he didn't want to rock the boat in a way that would get him shot? But I don't think he was really in danger at that point and would have more to gain by calling me town and then later being able to say "I told you so" when I flip. At least in the short time frame where his tune changed. Had it been a slower progression, I'd be more concerned about it.

I don't want to give Listo a pass for doing nothing, but I do have a feeling that some of his comments make him town and that's all I really want to say on that right now.

@Listo95 Do you have thoughts on anyone but yourself?

Actually, I'll ante up

Vote: llettuce

Claws said:

I enjoyed how you came to your conclusion on narrowing your list down when you were king

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I wasn't sure if the use of "interesting" implied it was scummy or something lol


And yeah, I kinda figured you were probably at work today so it's whatever. I'm just kinda spinning my wheels on who I think is sus right now.

I know last phase ended early, but I kind of feel a way about Claws doing some solving/prodding on d1 and just kind of floating on d2.

Claws said:

Interesting take on how you narrowed it down

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What did you mean by this?

@Claws where you at? What are your thoughts on things so far?

PsychoSoldier said:

This is I ironically towny

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*Unironically

To be honest, the Blind Ninja and Tildey kills make me think one of Mazer/Night has a scum, as I think they both tend to think like me in the sense that the sooner the town high posters die, the sooner the walls close in for "Why hasn't X died yet?"

MTR said:

Not going to lie here. I would totally kill Tildey N2 at this point and time. She is on a short list of people I want to take out early when I am scum.

That being said I didn't kill Tildey.

And she would totally kill me early as well and actually has.

So her death doesn't really make me think of anyone specific that would want to take her out early.

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This is I ironically towny

Mazer said:

Why do you trust me?


From multiple people, the king taking out a strong threat argument befuddles me.

Does anyone else see my point on the type of kills scum would make or am I taking crazy pills?

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I think for Lora in particular it holds weight. Lora doesn't give a fuck and could get away with it easier than most. So I think going the safe option of killing LDG is particularly towny for him, not as a general rule.

I also think Nightingale made a good point about how leaving her alive could be a more scummy move due to the chance of her becoming king and taking a spontaneous shot.

FutureHold said:

The one thing giving me pause on MTR is how early Tildey died. Tildey is usually a late game target for MTR. Something he has admitted many times. But Tildey’s death is why I brought up Claws earlier

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Ehhh, Tildey was getting no suspicion and came out the gate strong. If they're avoiding killing the main heavy hitters, it's a good kill to do in general. Tildey's death isn't really the reason I'm voting MTR, but I definitely don't think her dying on N2 makes it any less likely.

Satsu said:

Its a thing that was said 8 games ago or so. You could find it if you really wanted to. I have good memory it happened

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I want to clarify that it's not true. I've gimmicked as both alignments.

As far Satsu, again, my main read there is his progression on me yesterday didn't seem scum motivated. So my take on that recent post is bolstered by my previous read.

Mazer said:

That's the one thing that's restricting my read on him right now. But that's hardly definitive, as even though he gave himself room, without a good reason to switch, he'd still get pressed on that. And satsu would certainly know that.

To me future read as someone doing a perfunctory check-in, and then gave specific reads only after a light call-out. And it was quick, so one wonders if thoughts were in the chamber.

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Usually Future doesn't even give that much when called out for it. Which is why it's towny in my eyes unless he drastically improved his scum game.

Vote: MTR

I wanna start here

Especially since Satsu gave himself room to switch his read and could have tried to appeal to Nightingale today by shading me.

Mazer said:

Why does future look townier?

Honestly, I got a slight negative from the first few posts.

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I think it's more detail and conjecture than he normally does this early in general, let alone as scum. Think he would be more sheepish and less forthcoming with his posts if he was scum.

I also don't think Satsu having bad logic makes him scum. I agree the points for why I'm town aren't that strong, but I think he actually believes them.

Listo95 said:

This peasant is the towniest one here tyvm.

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Do explain how so

So I guess that puts me at Lora, Future, Satsu, Mazer, Val as my current pool of townreads? I don't feel confident it's pure, but I wouldn't execute any of them today.

I want to say I still like Satsu for the progression on me yesterday.

LDG being town while Foxxi was scumreading there doesn't really make me feel any better about her, even though I think her hinging a lot of her reads on me and then expanding away from that was maybe towny?

I did feel better about Mazer yesterday, just a general feel though.

I feel like I need to maybe re-eval Claws, and I'm currently rescinding my townlean on Listo.

Future looking townier today

The basic part of me thinks Tildey's death implicates MTR.

Nightingale said:

Well this was not expected....I would like everyone to tell me who they don't want to see eliminated first and foremost.

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I'd argue Val shouldn't be shot and that's about it. I don't feel that great about any of my other reads.

Are you still suspicious of me and to the same degree?

At the risk of fooling myself, I feel if Lora was going to pop so early and without input from the thread, he would have went for someone spicier if he was scum. I guess you could argue he went for LDG because A) he thought it would be funny and B) he'd get minimal flack for it, but overall just seems unlikely to me.

If LDG is scum that's probably clearing for Lora. Don't think Lora would shoot their own teammate for the memes with the numbers

Welp

Part of me wants to townread MTR for the "meta read" on llettuce, but not for any good or concrete reason. I guess maybe because I'd expect him to try and force a little more of a detailed explanation? But eh, that's probably not in his meta regardless of alignment this early. It felt ok in the gut though.

Nightingale said:

There's not a lot of satsu to re-read, I don't see the town lean psycho has on him from his comment D1

@PsychoSoldier - you wanted to dismiss my read of Tildey as just thinking she is town off mech talk -- and didn't seem to consider that I'd also had a deeper thought process I just didn't feel like spelling out (that that was more words than I've seen from her as scum ever I think) -- and yet your basis for town reading satsu boils down to mech talk. Why?

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I explained it already twice yesterday. It's not "he did mech talk/big post so he's town," it's that specifically theorizing that I self-targeted for the crown just didn't read as an angle scum would jump into the thread with? It's pretty weak and it's why I didn't have Satsu as a strong townread and even considered him as an option for execution(until you advocated for his death).

I didn't dismiss your read, from my perspective that particular post was NAI so I didn't get why that was the one you townread her for. It doesn't matter if you had more thought process because I can't read your mind. What I got was you highlighting that particular post as what made you townread her and it didn't track for me, and came off more like you were making an arbitrary read with a made-up reason. That might not be what happened, but I feel you and others have been consistently flattening my reads instead of actually listening to what I've said in thread.

Mazer said:

I'm curious what psych thinks of satsu'sanalysis of his play.

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Honestly it makes me townread him more. Not because of the analysis in particular, but if he's scum, he first came in defending me, and then quickly rethought the consequences of a d1 shot and brought up how my wanting shoot you pinged him. I think scum in most cases will either stick with the first narrative or change when met with considerable resistance. You were the only one to question him and I don't think that would really be enough or him to morph the stance into having a ping on me.

MTR said:

So I wasn't around at the end of day last day phase so didn't really get a chance to speak up when Psycho was going back and forth between me and Jarrod.

I am not sure how I could have given much of a read with what little I posted plus the fact part of it was just banter.

Don't have a ton reads just yet. I want to lean town on Tildey and llettuce but trying to be careful with Tildey because she has started to trip me up more when trying to get a read on here.

Pyscho pings me a little with how he went with me and Jarrod at the end and was just very it is what it is at the start of this phase after the Jarrod flip. Not going to say that means he is sus just yet but pings me a little.

Still early and hoping to get some more activity going to try to get more reads

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What's the reason for leaning llettuce?

Nightingale said:

I'm not misconstruing anything, I'm stating what your read feels like - which is I don't think you are genuinely trying to consider me. I use "vocal" here not in terms of literal post count, but in how invested I chose to be giving thoughts and reads - and you choosing to make it seem as if it was about posting or not doesn't make me feel better about *you*

I have Mazer so high because I think you're a wolf, and his interactions with you D1 don't feel like theatre to me. I could be wrong about satsu, I'd rather see you chopped first, but if I am right about you I think you just arbitrarily deciding not to consider him just because I said I thought he would be a good CFD no one had considered is sus as fuck.

Claws is null because I haven't seen anything that tells me he is town yet, and frankly I'm not sure why you think he is. Nothing he has done is AI.

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You are misconstruing if you're trying to say I was scumreading you for being less vocal, which I never said. My issue isn't that you have "less" thoughts, it's that they don't feel genuine or curious.

The fact to behave so many reads based on how you're reading me is going to bite you in the ass if you're not scum, because your read on me is wrong and you should be reading them individually until we have a scum flip.

I've explained why I thought Claws seems towny/AI and think he's had stances and posts that have more content than most and am surprised you don't have any sort of lean.

I'm having a lot of trouble buying this, but I'm also not sure scum!Foxxi would bother hinging all of her reads on a wrong read of me.