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Day 4 Timer

9 Players Alive/4 Dead
Day 4 has come to an end.

Mafia 36 - Cursed Souls

Reader mode
Damn, it sucks to have to be away.

I got my phone back but I have a lot to make up from missing work retrieving it

I saw Pat was taken out - good call there. Who killed him, and how? Deputy?

Did that trigger the plague? or was it something else?
 
I am trying to understand who was infected, and how.

I want to believe Tildey. Future and Val have been whispering since the beginning of the game, so I am inclined to trust that they are town.

I trust that CWE and MTR were town to begin with.
 
3puppies said:
I am trying to understand who was infected, and how.

I want to believe Tildey. Future and Val have been whispering since the beginning of the game, so I am inclined to trust that they are town.

I trust that CWE and MTR were town to begin with.
Click to expand...
Pat being killer activated Pest. So either Pat or Grumpy were the last non-infected players in the game.
 
So the allegations seem to be

Future - claimed tracker early, allegedly lying about his targets
Tildey - hinted at spy, same day, allegedly lying about being pestilence
Listo - claimed werewolf (claim only came when nobody else hadn't claimed)

I am inclined to
Vote: Listo

If the game started with a ww, two cursed souls, and two coven, 5 non-town and 8 town seems a little too unbalanced for a game with no writeups.
 
3puppies said:
So the allegations seem to be

Future - claimed tracker early, allegedly lying about his targets
Tildey - hinted at spy, same day, allegedly lying about being pestilence
Listo - claimed werewolf (claim only came when nobody else hadn't claimed)

I am inclined to
Vote: Listo

If the game started with a ww, two cursed souls, and two coven, 5 non-town and 8 town seems a little too unbalanced for a game with no writeups.
Click to expand...
I'm not saying he's lying about his targets. He easily could have targeted those people. But it was to spread plague instead.
 
3puppies said:
So the allegations seem to be

Future - claimed tracker early, allegedly lying about his targets
Tildey - hinted at spy, same day, allegedly lying about being pestilence
Listo - claimed werewolf (claim only came when nobody else hadn't claimed)

I am inclined to
Vote: Listo

If the game started with a ww, two cursed souls, and two coven, 5 non-town and 8 town seems a little too unbalanced for a game with no writeups.
Click to expand...
Be aware I'm also L-1 right now. I am not the priority. Pest is.
 
Listo95 said:
Be aware I'm also L-1 right now. I am not the priority. Pest is.
Click to expand...
That’s something the werewolf would say.

Honestly I’m surprised you outed yourself like that given you don’t have much of a chance to win anymore. I rather take out the werewolf then focus on pestilence so that you can’t sneak your way into a victory.
 
I'm trying to catch up and also make some notes. Did we ever figure out who the current cursed souls are? I know I saw that MTR is. Did we figure out the 2nd?
 
So we have both a plaguebearer (pestilence) and a werewolf, and both are neutral, but they have a wincon of

Werewolf has a wincon of needing to kill everyone or nothing can prevent that outcome.

Plaguebearer has a wincon that everyone but the Apocalypse members are dead or nothing can prevent this outcome.

I guess they would both be considered Evil, as in they seek to do harm to town.

Does that mean there was only one Coven?
 
Okay, I've been spreadsheeting to write down everyone's claimed roles and claimed actions trying to find a point where everyone left alive could have been touched back to a single person. I think Val has to be the plaguebearer and that when he claims to have protected Future on N2 he really infected him instead. That would have infected Future, everyone that visited Future that night, anyone that Future visited that night, and I'm assuming anyone visited by people Future visited that night. If that's the case then Val's visit to Future on N2 would have resulted in the following being infected:

Future
Me - because Future tracked me on N2 and because I placed a bug at Future's on N3
MTR - because I visited MTR on N2 to place a bug while Future was visiting me
Claws - because he partied at Val's as the socialite on N2
Listo - rampaged at my house on N2, but also scented Future on N3
Grumpy - tracked by Future on N3
3pups - visited MTR and visited by MTR on N3

The only person I can't account for being infected is CWE. But if Val is the plaguebearer he could have visited CWE on a different night to infect him directly.
 
Day 4 Vote Count:

Listo - 3 (Val #671, Grumpy #673, Future #734)
Tildey - 1 (CWE #725)
Future - 1 (Listo #807)
Val - 1 (Tildey #846)

Not Voting: MTR, Claws #660, 3puppies #832

It is now Day 4. Day 4 will end at 9:00pm ET on June 27th or when majority is reached. With 9 players alive, majority is 5 votes on a single player. If majority is not reached by the end of the day, there will be no elimination.
 
Tildey said:
Okay, I've been spreadsheeting to write down everyone's claimed roles and claimed actions trying to find a point where everyone left alive could have been touched back to a single person. I think Val has to be the plaguebearer and that when he claims to have protected Future on N2 he really infected him instead. That would have infected Future, everyone that visited Future that night, anyone that Future visited that night, and I'm assuming anyone visited by people Future visited that night. If that's the case then Val's visit to Future on N2 would have resulted in the following being infected:

Future
Me - because Future tracked me on N2 and because I placed a bug at Future's on N3
MTR - because I visited MTR on N2 to place a bug while Future was visiting me
Claws - because he partied at Val's as the socialite on N2
Listo - rampaged at my house on N2, but also scented Future on N3
Grumpy - tracked by Future on N3
3pups - visited MTR and visited by MTR on N3

The only person I can't account for being infected is CWE. But if Val is the plaguebearer he could have visited CWE on a different night to infect him directly.
Click to expand...
Seems pretty solid
 
Day 4 Vote Count:

Listo - 3 (Val #671, Grumpy #673, Future #734)
Val - 2 (Tildey #846, MTR #855)
Tildey - 1 (CWE #725)
Future - 1 (Listo #807)

Not Voting: Claws #660, 3puppies #832

It is now Day 4. Day 4 will end at 9:00pm ET on June 27th or when majority is reached. With 9 players alive, majority is 5 votes on a single player. If majority is not reached by the end of the day, there will be no elimination.
 
Tildey's analysis is certainly plausible, but it doesn't necessarily mean that Val was the plaguebearer. If Val got infected N1, everything Tildey pointed out could have followed from that.

I don't doubt that Future is skilled enough to lie about being Tracker, but would he have come up with it that early in the game? Could Tildey have come up with a spy that early? Would Tildey have spent that spreadsheet time / effort just to try to frame Val?

Val is claiming another non-town role. This would have meant the game started with

1 coven (Pat McAfee, confirmed flipped)
1 werewolf (confirmed exists by Tildey, and claimed by Listo),
2 cursed souls (confirmed still alive)
1 apocalypse (Plague bearer turned pestilence, confirmed existence by void)
1 neutral guardian angel (alleged claim by Val)

Do we think a game with 13 players to start begins with these 6 non-town roles?

It would mean town had
and town were

1 socialite - where is this now? Speculation that it ended up swapped with llettuce?
1 trickster - yours truly
1 cleric - Caito
1 spy - Tildey
1 tracker - Future
1 Deputy - per Void, it was the Deputy that killed Pat McAfee
1 Monarch - Xan

This is not adding up.

@CWE do you agree that finding pestilence has to be our priority?
 
I hit submit too soon.

Town would have had 7 of these 8 roles

1 socialite - where is this now? Speculation that it ended up swapped with llettuce?
1 trickster - confirmed yours truly
1 cleric - confirmed Caito
1 spy - Tildey
1 tracker - Future
1 Deputy - per Void, it was the Deputy that killed Pat McAfee - where is this now?
1 Monarch - confirmed Xan
1 retributionist - started as CWE, later went to MTR
 
Listo95 said:
Hopefully you all know how to play around a revealed Pestilence. Cause I am not the threat right now :P
Click to expand...
I have never played a game with Pestilence, so I don't know what to do. Hold my hand and walk me through it - this is taxing my already strained brain capacity.

I would think that it might mean maybe nobody should act at night. But we will have 2 cursed souls swapping around, spreading plaques and causing deaths.
 
I dont have a night action, I dont think retributionist will spread it if they act by proxxy not sure. Guardian angel is out of shots by now most likely.
 
Listo95 said:
I swear on all things I care about I will not kill tonight if you leave me alone.
Click to expand...
morgan freeman idgaf GIF
 
GrumpyCat said:
You are my number 1 plaguebearer candidate yes and listo could be a werewolf.
Click to expand...
This thought crossed my mind when she didn't say WW when she first said evil visited Future but I think she is what her claim is.

I started leaning Val before she came in with her thoughts. I just hadn't come in here yet to say that. But I am still trying to put my finger on what is off about Val
 
I was wondering if the trickster's magic mirror on self-protect would absorb the attack of pestilence, that is, if the PB visited trying to directly add 2 plaques. But if it counts as a visit both FROM and TO the trickster, it could count as 2 plaques and would be suicide. So is the role useless while pestilence is in effect?

What do you think of the game starting with 6/13 being non-town?
 
3puppies said:
I hit submit too soon.

Town would have had 7 of these 8 roles

1 socialite - where is this now? Speculation that it ended up swapped with llettuce?
1 trickster - confirmed yours truly
1 cleric - confirmed Caito
1 spy - Tildey
1 tracker - Future
1 Deputy - per Void, it was the Deputy that killed Pat McAfee - where is this now?
1 Monarch - confirmed Xan
1 retributionist - started as CWE, later went to MTR
Click to expand...
I’m curious to know what ratio you think it should be? I get lost in nearly every balance conversation, but if I recall, the typical hostile-to-town amount would be around 30% (if I’m remembering that wrong let me know). 30% of 13 players is 3.9 so you would expect 3-4 hostile-to-town roles (I say it this way because my understanding is that we win when all who seek to harm town are eliminated and not all non-town roles are hostile to town).

1 coven, 1 werewolf, & 1 plaguebearer would be 3 hostile to town roles. I can see stopping at 3 instead of 4 since there are 2 cursed souls and neither of them can win as cursed souls and cursed souls don’t have to be eliminated for game to end.
 
Tildey said:
I’m curious to know what ratio you think it should be? I get lost in nearly every balance conversation, but if I recall, the typical hostile-to-town amount would be around 30% (if I’m remembering that wrong let me know). 30% of 13 players is 3.9 so you would expect 3-4 hostile-to-town roles (I say it this way because my understanding is that we win when all who seek to harm town are eliminated and not all non-town roles are hostile to town).

1 coven, 1 werewolf, & 1 plaguebearer would be 3 hostile to town roles. I can see stopping at 3 instead of 4 since there are 2 cursed souls and neither of them can win as cursed souls and cursed souls don’t have to be eliminated for game to end.
Click to expand...

This is what I was wondering, whether the non-town Guardian Angel counted as hostile to town. If, for example, Future was the PB, and he also had a GA, wouldn't that make the GA's win con hostile to town, and throw the balance off too much?
 
I don't get listo's motivation here. WW is undoubtedly a threat to town, but I don't think he can do anything to help us find pestilence. If town holsters tonight, pestilence takes only one of us out.
 
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