Time for an MTR deep dive. This is the kill that most intrigues because he was theoretically on nightingale's chopping block, potential miskill and he got killed.
Your King has gone over the entire thread again, and while many of my feelings are light, I must see to it that they are shared, so that the Kings to follow may have a reliable well of knowledge to draw from when making decisions in the future.
I am cautiously townreading Tildey. I think her participation is greater than anything I've seen from her this early as scum, and while her initial reads put a lot of focus on finding the Kingmaker, I think they were thorough and less likely to be openly postulated if she were evil. The caveat is that if she started with way more free time than normal, she may just be motivated to show she can dominate when she has the time. But I do not believe that to be the case and would rather take her at face value.
Also lightly townreading Listo. While he has only roleplayed so far, I think the quickness in which he changed perspectives when talking about revolting shows more freedom of mind than when he was belting out the same note for 3 days in the previous game. Obviously, we will need more, but it feels good so far.
Claws also seems towny. I think the way he's done a bit of solving, and how he both went at Blind for asking an awkward question and later still hung on to that as the most interesting thing that happened without actively attacking Blind...ehh, I feel Claws would normally use that as a point of attack as an assassin. Caveat is that sometimes when I townread Claws early he turns out to be evil, but I have the faith for now.
Lightest of light town on Future for similar reasons to the last game, but I don't feel as strongly about it. Would like to see a lot more.
I also agreed with Nightingale that llettuce would make a fine court jester, and I still agree, but her absolute drop-off since that time is a bit concerning. Like she had a fun intro and then disappeared which she is more prone to do as scum in my experience.
I talked about Satsu already and I also feel ok about Val, but these are just Royal flights of fancy, nothing strong.
Blind Ninja seems...ok? I'm sort of reserving judgment because he's one of the best at faking content without seeming too far off from his town meta. I kinda like that he immediately questioned Future's intention and overall I want to say the way he's tried to get more out of me and pressure my presence is something more likely to come from town? I'd keep an open mind here, but not the direction I'm looking in.
Mazer and Nightingale...I think there might be scum between the two. Mazer bothered me for reasons that both Tildey and Claws took out of my mouth. Feels like he's talking the talk but not really walking the walk. The first post where he talks about observing my process, it just feels like lip service to give the illusion of participation but leaving the winds open for the other town players to interpret positively or negatively and follow those winds. I will say I kinda like him asking if I would force people to cooperate, and the question about Satsu is ok? I think the directed inquisitiveness could be a good sign, but it's also totally possible he's doing the thing where he's just bringing up a name and hoping the crowd will do the shading for him.
To be honest, though, I'm more worried about Nightingale. Her intro was even more filler-y. I kind of liked her coming to a read on llettuce, but I didn't really get why she liked Mazer more than Claws or Blind considering I feel he was, at best, completely neutral by that point? At least for anyone who knows Mazer as well as we do. I don't really feel like the post she is townreading Tildey for makes much sense as it's a completely NAI assessment of Val's player archetype that either alignment could make. Which is why I'm questioning her on that right now. It feels more like Nightingale is saying things to look towny/productive rather than actually having curiosity, which is a bad sign for her.
Jarrod, LDG, Lora, and MTR are all rand for me right now, with MTR seeming maybe evil from soft meta vibes that I could not quite substantiate.
Mtr is rand, but not completely. Day 1 though. Maybe something. Could quite possibly be nothing
So my shot will likely land in those 4 or one of Mazer and Nightingale. Unless someone has a convincing reason to execute one of my townleans.
Hey Pyscho, I expect you to make the right choice, so I would like for you to kill MTR anyways
day 1 mtr, etc etc
and yet i have never taken the whole house down before and i tend to always go for mtr first
He doesn’t count MTR because he’s always trying to help on that one.
Day 1 standard mtr tripe. Claws does love him some mtr
well i cant just go after the ladys first thats not very gentlemanly like so its goes MTR >future >diva then you
claws on mtr early
Im actually with bn that blasting sum1 vocal early is gunna make this a boring game specially with what we have to go off of for today.
Psycho had me at mtr tho
Still, but in fairness, this is not uncommon for claws early
LDG is completely rand and so is Lora, but I also would like to see if Lora ends up king. I feel dece about Future.
So I probably shoot MTR or Jarrod.
mtr or jarrod. Did end up going Jarrod. In fairness to both reads, not sure Psych could have been reading too strong at this point.
I guess so. I'm not against shooting LDG full stop, but MTR's tone already gives me scum MTR-ish vibes and Jarrod's plea about not understanding the setup feels kind of fake since last time he played this he immediately jumped into roleplaying and playing up the king kill mechanic. Whereas I didn't initially feel anything about the RNG comment and feel completely neutral on her.
Blind, is your preference LDG here? That's what I get from your suggestion.
How about you, Claws? How do you feel about MTR vs. Jarrod? I know clock's ticking
Part of me wants to townread MTR for the "meta read" on llettuce, but not for any good or concrete reason. I guess maybe because I'd expect him to try and force a little more of a detailed explanation? But eh, that's probably not in his meta regardless of alignment this early. It felt ok in the gut though.
This is all kinda fair . And I don want to acknowledge that Psych pretty much always gives you the most material. He is why I stopped doing word usage penalties as a scum ability.
Future looking townier today
The basic part of me thinks Tildey's death implicates MTR.
I can't fault your logic on that but I had not part in Tildey's death. Actually bummed over losing the observer.
Why does future look townier?
Honestly, I got a slight negative from the first few posts.
Psych with mtr over future when it's starting to get another read for many of us. Would he have had a reason at this point? Is it possible he was still starting to look at that option.
Vote: MTR
I wanna start here
Not a very good start. Barking up the wrong tree.
Any other reasons you can think of for Tildey's death?
@MTR
Same question
I feel like Lora for some of the same reasons you mentioned earlier that he didn't really take advantage of being king to take out a strong threat.
Future is feeling more and more town.
I would also say I trust Mazer at this point as well.
not sure what to think of claws or listo. val is probably town but could be a lurking scum.
Why do you trust me?
From multiple people, the king taking out a strong threat argument befuddles me.
Does anyone else see my point on the type of kills scum would make or am I taking crazy pills?
There's several back and forths here, and I'm not sure mtr is all the way established. Psych had some pressure. I was interested vetting. The important thing I think within this exchange is his POE. mtr obviously wouldn't be thinking "hero" like everyone else. If scum was trying to find one, are they like Psych and think he's the next biggest claimer? Is psych telling them that?
There's a possibility I'm reading listo wrong, and if he did flip, I think there's some significance here.
MTR would be on my shooting range but his reads are kind of solid arent they?
Luckyly I dont have to make that kind of decsion today.
Ehhh, Tildey was getting no suspicion and came out the gate strong. If they're avoiding killing the main heavy hitters, it's a good kill to do in general. Tildey's death isn't really the reason I'm voting MTR, but I definitely don't think her dying on N2 makes it any less likely.
I slightly lean town on mtr, even though we disagree on our future leans.
I actually dont like mtr and think his tildey d2 bit was openly wolfing
i like val he seems like a cool guy
i answered some of this earlyier your not terrible
the fox is ok for meow
mazer is agendy still dont really like him
satsu idk i dont read him well
lora is an idiot
mtr probably scum
future idk why he has such a hardon for me like give it a rest
lettus is poor iso
Listo is the towniest supposably ? probably scum?
if i missed any1 else idk im just not really focusing on ppl not playing
There is some calling out with mtr here. Claws is on the shot list. I'd ask Satsu about his reads, and reluctance to give reasons. But we all know he's not going to answer me or anyone else while I'm alive.
I am considering a pool of: lettuce, claws, satsu. I will hear arguments for: MTR, listo
First the people I do not want to chop:
Mazer: I got a read of mazer early D1 that I have yet to see any reason to think is incorrect, which admittedly was bolstered by being sus of psycho and feeling like the two of them have not interacted in a way that is partnered - but even reconsidering my feelings about psycho, I think his play since then leans him town regardless.
Future: I touched on this already, but I feel like his play here has been more relaxed than I've seen in his previous scum games. He has offered thoughts and not avoided answering questions, though if claws is town I may have to reconsider him.
Psycho: I feel a bit better about psycho today - some of that comes from re-reading D1. I am still pinged by his focus on me objecting to the "vocal" bit and ignoring me pointing out I didn't mean it in terms of actual post count - saying he town read me when I had less content... but here I gave parts of my thoughts without going overboard and he thinks that's more scummy than nothing? I dunno. It still feels like trying to find an excuse to scum read me.... but I did like that we came to the same conclusion on lettuce and Tildey l... It has also helped that a lot of his reads and thoughts today have lined up with my own. His comments on future and lora particularly felt like mind-melds that made me feel better about him. I do share his tinfoil about himself/mazer/myself all being alive - which does give me pause, especially with the kills so far being... not necessarily odd? But neither stands out to me as "oh yeah, that person was a priority to get rid of" whereas we three as town are generally wanted dead by scum no matter what we've said/done yet....though it's possible I suppose in a world where we are all three town, that the wolves could just fear we've all been too likely to be doc/watcher targets for that reason.
Val: I have a personal read on Val as town, but even besides that - I think his questioning me thinking LDG could be scum off only a few posts - regardless of the fact that wasn't fully why I was sus of her - isn't something he does as scum himself.
Lora: This one..... I still think lora is probably town? His actions and behavior aren't really AI - I can see him doing what he did as any alignment.... but I do think a scum lora maybe uses his reputation to shoot someone.... that's not LDG. The larger issue I have with lora is the numbers game here. If we don't start getting wolves and he lives to become king again, that may not end well for us... but not something I am going to worry about today.
I may be swayed to consider these:
MTR: I don't really have strong feelings one way or the other for MTR. He's been here but everything around him is just kinda grey fuzzy in my mind. The thing that stands out the most to me about him is that he has continued to hold his town read of lettuce despite not having any real argument for why.
Listo: I almost feel like his I'm so town so so so town schtick is twtbaw? But seeing how future *just* did that, nearly getting yeeted for it himself as he pointed out - and then pivoted to being town read off it... gives me tinfoil.
The people I am considering:
Lettuce: I still think lettuce's intro was towny. I struggle to see a scum agenda that is like "I wanna fake claim something immediately!" -- that seems like it would draw a lot of unnecessary attention and ultimately not end well....but I suppose since she didn't *actually* do that and only said she wanted to... maybe that doesn't mean as much as I initially thought. Popping in at start of day just to say gee shucks we've only killed town doesn't give me happy feelings. I want to think her showing up to interact some is a good look, but I hesitate because I remember I had that feeling last game - that her spurt of posts analyzing the write up was towny, and it turned out I was wrong... so I dunno how much credit I should give to that.
Claws: I didn't hate anything about his D1 or D2 - which is suspect in itself for claws... and then today the "anyone but me" vibes he gave off do not make me feel great about him - nor does how he asked people to weigh in on me vs psycho - when he has said he is fine with both of us? He said he didn't want to yeet psycho and then later that I seem fine.. which.. I'm not sure if that's just him trying to not piss me off since I can axe him or what - but it feels weird. The one thing I see in his favor is that I think maybe a scum claws tries to push a king psycho *into* chopping me? seeing me gone D1 I think would delight him... especially if psycho is town and would end up being the one taking the heat for that.
Satsu: My initial read of satsu was based off being sus of psycho and hating how he decided to not even consider Satsu since I wanted to... which does lose some weight if psycho isn't scum... Satsu's responses to questions have been ~fine....But I am still pinged by him - notably that his participation feels like it has been limited to what has been pulled out of him. He never posts a whole lot, but there's usually at least a bit more that he offers up without someone having to prod him with a stick.
Foxxi does swing back and forth to mtr. I'm not sure that she actually seems like she's more on him then anyone else yet,
So llettuce, mtr, claws, and me are all pretty legitimate shots then?
Any reason other than citing you?
I am not a wise shot to take.
I am not quite sure why people are after listo. Nothing is really screaming one way or the other for me and more neutral on him.
In retrospect, could this post have put people on him?
I made a post where I said why i think toy lean town, Val because I can read Val in some way and i think I have him as TPR. FH is a tone read, dont know where else to look but is just like town FH from last game not scummy at all.
I don't want to talk about my feeling toward Listo at the moment.
Rest of my PoE: Claws Lettuce Mazer MTR is because I have a town read on other players. Those are valid kills for today. There are 2 scum in there.
I will tell you an updated list tommorow.
In fairness, Satsu showed some restraint on Listo. Of course, so did Psych. And other people. it's not like this was an uncommon tact. I also enjoy that there is no rationale here, and that he was off on mtr, but this only increased his confidence to his new short list having 3 scum.
This POE is worth holding onto for later.
Like Don't ignore this if I go.
I don't fucking know right now. I hate claws today, but maybe that makes him actually town, satsu seems off, but the only person trying to even sort of defend satsu is psycho - so unless psycho is a wolf with him that means theoretical wolf satsu has teammates that aren't bothering to try to save him? Lettuce seems town, but I don't fully trust that read after the last game either? But then...I kinda feel like there would be more opinions of who to pick of the three if any of them are wolves... but if *none* of them are.... then who the fuck is?
Maybe I just shoot MTR/listo?
Now it narrows to the hero and those a lot of people were thinking. I missed it, but this worries me.
I wouldn't hate you for an MTR shot. Part of me wants to buy the "I'm not the right choice" stuff, but off memory I don't think he's given any kind of takes or anything this phase.
I'd rather wait until tomorrow for Listo, so unless you feel sure about it, I don't think that's the right call.
Mtr and Listo. Psych,
Not completely sure if Night would kill MTR while actively trying to theorize against him?
Damn, that means MTR would have been the optimal shot yesterday. Maybe that's why he wasn't really solving much because he kinda wanted to get shot
I think this shows Psych may have been at least considering mtr as interesting to psych.
I think Satsu and I were both thinking Listo might be the hero, so that only makes me feel better there considering MTR was the kill
Obviously, this is only relevant in a world where Listo is town.
In fairness, if he is it's pretty relevant.
