Mafia 21- American Assassin

[VoidKitten]

Yeah but they're not locked out of ANY scum roles. Nor locked out of being serial killers.

Oh I agree 100% with you. I'm not saying they aren't scum.

I'm saying for our best shot today to kill someone and have it be a hit, would be to discuss the people who are more likely to be scum.

 

[VoidKitten]

There's another possibility, there might be vanillas

Very true. I always forget that happens. I don't do vanillas in my madness games :D

 

[WindwardAway]

I mildly suspect that there's a rolecop, but there's been no writeup evidence to support that theory

 

[WindwardAway]

Very true. I always forget that happens. I don't do vanillas in my madness games :D

I don't remember this game being labelled as rolemadness in the sign-ups, was it?

 

[VoidKitten]

I don't remember this game being labelled as rolemadness in the sign-ups, was it?

I mean 15 players and everyone but 4 of 15 have had some type of action indicated in the writeup.

 

[VoidKitten]

Two of them being roleblocked two days in a row.

One of them being afk and probably didn't submit :D

 

[VoidKitten]

This is all just speculation of course, but trying to break it down to better guide our thinking.

 

[VoidKitten]

Like for example:

If we thought Donatella and scum were not odd/even, I would tell everyone its 100% BN right now. Since no scum kill.

However, it is definitely possible they swap and we really won't know until tonight to see if both act or one/other.

 

[WindwardAway]

Two of them being roleblocked two days in a row.

One of them being afk and probably didn't submit :D

Yeah I think Listo was the one who didn't submit lol

 

[CWE]

I would want to push (in order)

BN
CWE
Mazer

I feel like Claws leans more town, but the list makes him have some sus here. Windward I am less concerned with.

Not all of the above are scum, I don't think. But with the absence of any real info, this helps us narrow it down more.

 

[WindwardAway]

Like for example:

If we thought Donatella and scum were not odd/even, I would tell everyone its 100% BN right now. Since no scum kill.

However, it is definitely possible they swap and we really won't know until tonight to see if both act or one/other.

Is there anything excluding Donatella from making a juggernaut kill through a roleblock?

 

[VoidKitten]

This isn't explicit enough or its my paranoia talking.

 

[VoidKitten]

Is there anything excluding Donatella from making a juggernaut kill through a roleblock?

No there is not. The writeup usually shows strongman. It isn't clear, but there is a line i could see hinting at strongman? Maybe.

If that is true and donatella has a strongman kill, then WA, Grumpy, and BN could also be a murdering SK so that changes none of my thoughts :D

 

[WindwardAway]

imo CWE/Mazer are unlikely to both be scum
Because CWE doesn't need to draw attention to an active partner by voting them

 

[CWE]

This isn't explicit enough or its my paranoia talking.

 

[VoidKitten]

It makes me wanna kill BN even more tbh.

Makes WA and Grumpy look worse.

 

[VoidKitten]

imo CWE/Mazer are unlikely to both be scum
Because CWE doesn't need to draw attention to an active partner by voting them

Lmao. I had this argument with myself and legit said I could see CWE voting on Mazer

 

[CWE]

Lmao. I had this argument with myself and legit said I could see CWE voting on Mazer

 

[WindwardAway]

Lmao. I had this argument with myself and legit said I could see CWE voting on Mazer

Oh lol

 

[VoidKitten]

CWE is making me like him less on ISO. lol

 

[WindwardAway]

It makes me wanna kill BN even more tbh.

Makes WA and Grumpy look worse.

I've been debating whether I'd be willing to kill BN, and he's kind of in that range where i would paranoia kill him but then I'd feel really bad if he flipped town because it would literally just be a paranoia kill

 

[WindwardAway]

CWE is making me like him less on ISO. lol

Isn't he doing a gimmick or something?

 

[GrumpyCat]

If that is true and donatella has a strongman kill, then WA, Grumpy, and BN could also be a murdering SK

Wouldnt their kill work on n1 then?

 

[VoidKitten]

Isn't he doing a gimmick or something?

He uses emojis all the time. It's his thing. Not as his only source of commenting that I've seen.

Could be a gimmick. Could also be cover so he doesn't have to lie.

Emoji's can be interpreted many ways.

 

[WindwardAway]

I think BN was scum with me in that game I subbed into
But he died like immediately after I subbed in

 

[WindwardAway]

Wouldnt their kill work on n1 then?

Not if it's alternating kills I guess

 

[VoidKitten]

Wouldnt their kill work on n1 then?

Not if they alternate kills with scum on odd and SK on even

 

[CWE]

CWE is making me like him less on ISO. lol

 

[WindwardAway]

He uses emojis all the time. It's his thing. Not as his only source of commenting that I've seen.

Could be a gimmick. Could also be cover so he doesn't have to lie.

Emoji's can be interpreted many ways.

Yeah
I had a thought about why he might be doing it but I just realized my reasoning is very unlikely so never mind lol

 

[GrumpyCat]

Like for example:

If we thought Donatella and scum were not odd/even, I would tell everyone its 100% BN right now. Since no scum kill.

However, it is definitely possible they swap and we really won't know until tonight to see if both act or one/other.

Its and assassin game with 3 roleblocks and a doctor and sk and mafia are odd/even kills? ;p
Come on BN dont let it be you ;<

 

[WindwardAway]

Normally I'm all for mech solving, idk why I went for social reads and gamestate reads this time

 

[VoidKitten]

Its and assassin game with 3 roleblocks and a doctor and sk and mafia are odd/even kills? ;p
Come on BN dont let it be you ;<

Its still 15 people. Two kills per night can end game quickly. But you're right about doc, jail, etc

But if you were correct and there is no strongman kill (since they'd have used it on N1), then it means claws is the SK :D

 

[WindwardAway]

Normally I'm all for mech solving, idk why I went for social reads and gamestate reads this time

Actually it's probably bc I've been blocked twice in a row so I have no mech info of my own to contribute

 

[CWE]

He uses emojis all the time. It's his thing. Not as his only source of commenting that I've seen.

Could be a gimmick. Could also be cover so he doesn't have to lie.

Emoji's can be interpreted many ways.

 

[WindwardAway]

Idk, if you wanted to test the strongman theory wouldn't you just need to block the exact same players again on another odd and even cycle to see if there's a kill pattern or lack thereof?

Seems a bit farfetched and a waste of blocks, but in theory it does work assuming a strongman would be limited use.

 

[VoidKitten]

I demand you tell me everything you are attempting to tell me after this game is over so I can see how dense I am.

 

[VoidKitten]

Idk, if you wanted to test the strongman theory wouldn't you just need to block the exact same players again on another odd and even cycle to see if there's a kill pattern or lack thereof?

Seems a bit farfetched and a waste of blocks, but in theory it does work assuming a strongman would be limited use.

Yeah, I wouldn't even consider trying to do that. Way too much WIFOM and if it is strongman, its likely limited.

 

[WindwardAway]

Translation attempt: "gee I dunno, why would I do such a thing? You can keep solving me or you can chill, or you can bang your head against a wall in frustration if you prefer"

 

[VoidKitten]

What the roleblocks/jails can be used for is to narrow down that list i posted.

 

[CWE]

I demand you tell me everything you are attempting to tell me after this game is over so I can see how dense I am.

 

[VoidKitten]

I need someone to tell me if mean CWE is scum CWE or not.

:D

 

[CWE]

Translation attempt: "gee I dunno, why would I do such a thing? You can keep solving me or you can chill, or you can bang your head against a wall in frustration if you prefer"

 

[CWE]

I need someone to tell me if mean CWE is scum CWE or not.

:D

 

[WindwardAway]

I need someone to tell me if mean CWE is scum CWE or not.

:D

I'm gonna guess that we can discern his alignment in about a day or two.

 

[CWE]

I'm gonna guess that we can discern his alignment in about a day or two.

 

[VoidKitten]

I'm not saying anything bad here at all.

But I kinda expected Windward to die last night based on how the day ended :D

 

[WindwardAway]

I'm not saying anything bad here at all.

But I kinda expected Windward to die last night based on how the day ended :D

I actually didn't expect to die because the mech wasn't on my side lol
If the kills aren't odd or even, I guess I could have been a mafia kill target, but we have no proof of that since there was only a neutral kill and I was jailed or whatever.

 

[WindwardAway]

I think I'm kind of a poor kill target unless I singlehandedly flip more than one red name tbh
I can do a lot of damage as town

 

[WindwardAway]

I mean I think I led town into a loss, as town, in a game that ended a few days ago

 

[VoidKitten]

So do we think the scum team has

1 Roleblocker, 1 Killer, and 1 GF?

 

[WindwardAway]

So do we think the scum team has

1 Roleblocker, 1 Killer, and 1 GF?

That's what I'm currently running with
And then neuts are 1 survivor(?) and 1 serial killer

 

[VoidKitten]

We have only seen two scum actions on N1 (one hidden in a way).

Assuming it was ninja kill, that means they could act.

So Claws, Windward, and GrumpyCat can only be 3 town, 1 scum (Mitch or Hayes, whoever didn't kill), or 1 neutral (assuming SK isn't strongman, but its possible)

 

[WindwardAway]

...you know what's a bit of a conundrum, a godfather could very well just lurk and not post because they'd never be in danger of an alignment cop.

 

[WindwardAway]

...you know what's a bit of a conundrum, a godfather could very well just lurk and not post because they'd never be in danger of an alignment cop.

And this is bad because it means we can't even be sure the lurkers would be good cop targets.
They're great vig targets, though. -_-"

 

[VoidKitten]

We have not seen the following roles act at all and have had the following roleblocks:

Frank Wilson
Albert Rudin
Hank Clark
President Hayes/MitchRapp (one of these has acted, one has not)

Claws was roleblocked on N1 and only one new character appeared on N2.
BN was roleblocked on N2 and no character disappeared from N1.

Grumpy and Windward have been roleblocked 2 days in a row.

 

[VoidKitten]

And this is bad because it means we can't even be sure the lurkers would be good cop targets.
They're great vig targets, though. -_-"

Now you know why I am mad Listo didn't shoot morrison. Morrison was prime vig shot.

 

[GrumpyCat]

This game has least rules ive seen in a while so i guess we go witha default that self targeting is not alolwed?

 

[WindwardAway]

We have not seen the following roles act at all and have had the following roleblocks:

Frank Wilson
Albert Rudin
Hank Clark
President Hayes/MitchRapp (one of these has acted, one has not)

Claws was roleblocked on N1 and only one new character appeared on N2.
BN was roleblocked on N2 and no character disappeared from N1.

Grumpy and Windward have been roleblocked 2 days in a row.

I am quite certain that at least one or two of the names will just never show up in a writeup.

 

[VoidKitten]

This game has least rules ive seen in a while so i guess we go witha default that self targeting is not alolwed?

That is typical Rajah style so I expect no self targeting outside of specific abilities, like Anna.

 

[WindwardAway]

Now you know why I am mad Listo didn't shoot morrison. Morrison was prime vig shot.

I think it's possible Listo had a vig that was restricted to a certain day/night. Last game I played had an N2 vig and an N3 vig. Scum got the N2 vig and managed to vig the town N3 vig and also killed our cops before any of them could cop lol.

 

[VoidKitten]

I am quite certain that at least one or two of the names will just never show up in a writeup.

Normally I would agree, but we normally see those names ahead of time in the writeups. Or there are names that appear after a day or two.

We saw exactly the same names. Only 5 names are missing technically.

All 5 are in the start of game writeup. And it perfectly equals 15 people.

I don't expect any major surprises. Maybe.

 

[WindwardAway]

Normally I would agree, but we normally see those names ahead of time in the writeups. Or there are names that appear after a day or two.

We saw exactly the same names. Only 5 names are missing technically.

All 5 are in the start of game writeup. And it perfectly equals 15 people.

I don't expect any major surprises. Maybe.

Oh no, I meant that there are some names in the OP that we might not see in the daily writeups. Because if the ninja killer doesn't plan on killing again without ninjaing, we won't see their name, and if a godfather never kills, we wouldn't see their name either. And then there's the chance that there are vanillas or passive roles who don't act.

 

[VoidKitten]

Oh no, I meant that there are some names in the OP that we might not see in the daily writeups. Because if the ninja killer doesn't plan on killing again without ninjaing, we won't see their name, and if a godfather never kills, we wouldn't see their name either. And then there's the chance that there are vanillas or passive roles who don't act.

Oh yes. I get what you mean. There are likely a name or two we wont see, yup. But process of elimination, as we are doing now, will out them as the days come. Depending on how roleblocks go.

With my list, any new roleblocks will basically out the players characters unless the blocks are also on people who dont act or have passives etc.

 

[VoidKitten]

Since, if I block, lets say MTR and Ben Friedman disappears.

It's clear who MTR was barring any other roleblocks being on other people :D

But even then, if two names disappear and two new roleblocks? You know those two are in there.

 

[VoidKitten]

TLDR: I wouldn't be surprised if GC is roleblocked until the end of time to lessen the amount of info. Assuming he is town and its not just scum blocking their own goon/GF over and over.

 

[WindwardAway]

TLDR: I wouldn't be surprised if GC is roleblocked until the end of time to lessen the amount of info. Assuming he is town and its not just scum blocking their own goon/GF over and over.

That would be pretty goofy lol
Like, sure it might allow him to endgame as scum, but it would also be a waste of their own roleblocker when there was obviously a serial killer and a town vigilante.

 

[VoidKitten]

That would be pretty goofy lol
Like, sure it might allow him to endgame as scum, but it would also be a waste of their own roleblocker when there was obviously a serial killer and a town vigilante.

It really isn't if you think about it, though I just wouldn't use the roleblock in this case.

But roleblocks give a metric fuck ton of info, as you can see. Roleblocks are a double edged sword as scum. You roleblock 2 people, you now just 1) show its a scum blocking so its immediately thought its on a town (usually, but not always) 2) You help narrow down and build the spreadsheet which is usually the bane of scum teams.

 

[WindwardAway]

How common are passive roles? Like bulletproof, miller, godfather, ascetic?

Doesn't look like we have an ascetic (or at least there's very little room for one) and the bulletproof seems to have been an active ability, but there are also other possibilities than just roles that can throw off a cop.

 

[WindwardAway]

It really isn't if you think about it, though I just wouldn't use the roleblock in this case.

But roleblocks give a metric fuck ton of info, as you can see. Roleblocks are a double edged sword as scum. You roleblock 2 people, you now just 1) show its a scum blocking so its immediately thought its on a town (usually, but not always) 2) You help narrow down and build the spreadsheet which is usually the bane of scum teams.

You say that, but then it implies town is kinda shooting themselves in the foot and depriving us of info by um, blocking the same player twice in a row lol

 

[VoidKitten]

How common are passive roles? Like bulletproof, miller, godfather, ascetic?

Doesn't look like we have an ascetic (or at least there's very little room for one) and the bulletproof seems to have been an active ability, but there are also other possibilities than just roles that can throw off a cop.

Godfather is very common.

Ascetic, full bulletproof are less common.

Miller is more likely to be in the form of paranoid cop around here.

We do a lot of BPVs in general. Either just NK or a mix of NK/yeet whichever comes first.

 

[WindwardAway]

And I mean that in the nicest way possible, that you will probably get tons of info by not blocking me

 

[VoidKitten]

You say that, but then it implies town is kinda shooting themselves in the foot and depriving us of info by um, blocking the same player twice in a row lol

You are absolutely correct that they are depriving us of info that way. That being said, its worth it if they have a strong feeling (block a kill or stop a kill)

 

[WindwardAway]

I'm also very unlikely to be a kill target because most or all of you don't know what my scum game looks like

 

[WindwardAway]

I should check how many times I've been nightkilled on this forum

 

[VoidKitten]

I'm also very unlikely to be a kill target because most or all of you don't know what my scum game looks like

I'd give you until N2/N3 if I were scum I'd think.

Let you play before brutally murdering you.

I can't wait till you die tn now :D

 

[WindwardAway]

I'd give you until N2/N3 if I were scum I'd think.

Let you play before brutally murdering you.

I can't wait till you die tn now :D

Oh I probably won't die cause it's not like anyone knows my role or flavor lol

 

[WindwardAway]

I went to check my past games here and all I saw was that I accidentally suicided to a rand as a town protective lmao

 

[GrumpyCat]

you had a blast

 

[VoidKitten]

Oh I probably won't die cause it's not like anyone knows my role or flavor lol

I had a guess and a feeling and then you said something that made me second guess myself :D

 

[VoidKitten]

But really guys.

Windward, Grumpy, and BN contain at least one non-town unless we think all three of them happen to be the 3 town they all can be.

 

[WindwardAway]

I went to check my past games here and all I saw was that I accidentally suicided to a rand as a town protective lmao

There was another one where I endgamed and won as town

 

[WindwardAway]

But really guys.

Windward, Grumpy, and BN contain at least one non-town unless we think all three of them happen to be the 3 town they all can be.

I'm not convinced
Like maybe I didn't read your spreadsheet correctly but I think the scumteam is likely outside those names, or else one of the 3 I suspect (who are outside of Grumpy/BN/me) is a neut.

 

[VoidKitten]

I'm not convinced
Like maybe I didn't read your spreadsheet correctly but I think the scumteam is likely outside those names, or else one of the 3 I suspect (who are outside of Grumpy/BN/me) is a neut.

If it is a jailer and you and claws were roleblocked, it is not mechanically possible for you to be anything other than those roles.

You are excluded from them by being roleblocked the night it was used.

Unless you want to argue people have roleblock immunity :D

 

[WindwardAway]

Personally I'm fine if you decide you want to wagon me, cause at least you'd have my flip info, but I'd much rather pursue Mazer today as my primary suspect.

BN I will only consider after that, because I have my priorities.

 

[WindwardAway]

If it is a jailer and you and claws were roleblocked, it is not mechanically possible for you to be anything other than those roles.

You are excluded from them by being roleblocked the night it was used.

Unless you want to argue people have roleblock immunity :D

I would argue that some people are unaffected my roleblocks, yes

 

[WindwardAway]

I would argue that some people are unaffected my roleblocks, yes

*by

 

[VoidKitten]

Mazer absolutely could be scum :D

I'm not saying the scum team is those 3 people.

Statistically, ONE of you is non-town of some form unless we just so happened to find the three town roles you can be.

 

[VoidKitten]

I would argue that some people are unaffected my roleblocks, yes

This would be something we haven't seen before outside of our ToS/ToL games.

Or strongman or an amplifier.

But we'd see the amplifier and the only thing hinting at strongman could be SK.

 

[WindwardAway]

Anyway yeah, my conclusion was that I've never been killed on FoS
I endgamed and won as town once
I got killed by a bad rand as town once
And I got voted out as scum once
I think that's all the games I've played here

 

[WindwardAway]

Mazer absolutely could be scum :D

I'm not saying the scum team is those 3 people.

Statistically, ONE of you is non-town of some form unless we just so happened to find the three town roles you can be.

Yeah and because I'm one of them, I know something about those three missing roles.

 

[VoidKitten]

Anyway yeah, my conclusion was that I've never been killed on FoS
I endgamed and won as town once
I got killed by a bad rand as town once
And I got voted out as scum once
I think that's all the games I've played here

You are looking into my comment about thinking you're dying way too much and not as a way for me to gain more info about you

 

[WindwardAway]

This would be something we haven't seen before outside of our ToS/ToL games.

Or strongman or an amplifier.

But we'd see the amplifier and the only thing hinting at strongman could be SK.

There are other things that would render a roleblock useless

 

[WindwardAway]

You are looking into my comment about thinking you're dying way too much and not as a way for me to gain more info about you

No I just thought it was a funny piece of information

 

[VoidKitten]

There are other things that would render a roleblock useless

I'm not trying to be dumb or ask you like anything about your role lmao.

But what things because I feel stupid right now :D

 

[WindwardAway]

I'm not trying to be dumb or ask you like anything about your role lmao.

But what things because I feel stupid right now :D

Well, if they're alternating kill nights, and someone only gets blocked on the night they can't kill, I wouldn't consider them to be affected by a roleblock? Sorry if that was worded kinda weird lol

 

[VoidKitten]

Well, if they're alternating kill nights, and someone only gets blocked on the night they can't kill, I wouldn't consider them to be affected by a roleblock? Sorry if that was worded kinda weird lol

Oh I get it. Yes, action wise you are correct. They are unaffected.

But the writeup tells us that they were roleblocked. Which means that anyone that appears in the writeup cannot be the person roleblocked. Their action wouldn't appear.

Barring, of course, the ability to bypass roleblocks. At that point, wed then still see their action go off

 

[WindwardAway]

Oh I get it. Yes, action wise you are correct. They are unaffected.

But the writeup tells us that they were roleblocked. Which means that anyone that appears in the writeup cannot be the person roleblocked. Their action wouldn't appear.

Barring, of course, the ability to bypass roleblocks. At that point, wed then still see their action go off

I have my doubts, I think they can show up in the writeup as roleblocked even if they didn't act because the roleblocker/jailer/etc. obviously has to show up in the writeup.

 

[WindwardAway]

I have my doubts, I think they can show up in the writeup as roleblocked even if they didn't act because the roleblocker/jailer/etc. obviously has to show up in the writeup.

Wait, I think I completely misread what you said lol
I thought you meant the player names showing up, not the character names

 

[VoidKitten]

I have my doubts, I think they can show up in the writeup as roleblocked even if they didn't act because the roleblocker/jailer/etc. obviously has to show up in the writeup.

Correct. So by us knowing the jailer used jail on you. A jail is a roleblock.

You CANNOT be any of the characters doing an action on another player. Your action would not appear in the typical rajah format.

 

[WindwardAway]

So yeah, you're right lmao