Fingers of Suspicion

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Mafia 18 - Town of FoS

3puppies

Lost Wolf
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Dreyski - 6 (Robo #198, Foxxi #199, Xanjori #257, Claws #259, Blind Ninja #265, Morrison #273)

Add myself as a townie, Mitch and MTR as confirmed town, and that's 9. Either that train isn't all green, or we yeet everyone who wasn't on it.

Sounds like bad math, since we don't know for sure that you are townie, and given that I am green, logic means there has to be scum there.

Is Caito usually this quiet?
 

Foxxi

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Actually, if we assume pups is town which I am - that means at least one of those has to be non-town
 

Foxxi

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Sounds like bad math, since we don't know for sure that you are townie, and given that I am green, logic means there has to be scum there.

Is Caito usually this quiet?
It's been a while since caito played, but I don't remember him as super talkative?
 

Claws

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Whole train could be pure tho its not uncommon for scum to sit and another thing to note most games we never have a d1 so wouldnt surpise me for town to be the only ones to train and scum just slide by specially if those players are regular "sleepers"
 

Claws

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Caito is 2 things either hes not talking or hes in dead chat due to cwe
 

Foxxi

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Whole train could be pure tho its not uncommon for scum to sit and another thing to note most games we never have a d1 so wouldnt surpise me for town to be the only ones to train and scum just slide by specially if those players are regular "sleepers"
I sincerely doubt it. We have MTR, Mitch and pups not on the train, and 6 votes on it - that would equal 9. That would mean literally every one left *not* on that train is non-town. Cept maybe mazer. He exists in some weird schrodinger's-role state.
 

Dreyski

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Sounds like bad math, since we don't know for sure that you are townie, and given that I am green, logic means there has to be scum there.

Is Caito usually this quiet?
Would it help if I coloured my name green like Foxxi did?
 

Dreyski

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This is definitely something to keep in mind, assuming you are town it is unlikely the whole train is pure. Heck, even if you aren't town it's unlikely that train is pure.

How do you feel about these people?
I honestly like the first half of the train more than the second (you could swap Claws and Xanjori around).
 

Foxxi

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It was like 7 more chances to rand scum or sumthin
Not really. The odds look about the same - though it depends somewhat on what was rand'd initially. Hypothetical example: if we started with two of the apocalypse roles, then those two roles would be ineligible for him to rand into. If we started with none - that's four possible roles from that category.

But even if we assume all four horsemen were available it still worst case would be like four extra possible non-town roles.
 

Foxxi

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I kinda wanna train BN - but I also really want caito to be pressured
 

Foxxi

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I honestly like the first half of the train more than the second (you could swap Claws and Xanjori around).
you're not just saying this because I'm in it are you? You wouldn't try to pocket me now, would you? =p
 

Claws

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Not really. The odds look about the same - though it depends somewhat on what was rand'd initially. Hypothetical example: if we started with two of the apocalypse roles, then those two roles would be ineligible for him to rand into. If we started with none - that's four possible roles from that category.

But even if we assume all four horsemen were available it still worst case would be like four extra possible non-town roles.
I Suppose i was thinkin theres likely bigger shot assuming alot of town unqies are already in game but idk
 

Dreyski

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Trouble is, I worry that seeing BN as anti-town is just my confirmation bias at work because he always seems to rand scum.
I could get aboard a Caito train, but I'd like to hear from him first.
 

Foxxi

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I Suppose i was thinkin theres likely bigger shot assuming alot of town unqies are already in game but idk
It's possible, but less likely since the only uniques for town are all the power ones and deputy - we could have randed some extra powers in the "2 random town any type" category... but it's more likely number-wise those would end up as other town roles.

Whereas all the coven roles are unique, so whatever 4 we started with would be removed from the possible roles
 

Dreyski

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you're not just saying this because I'm in it are you? You wouldn't try to pocket me now, would you? =p
Well, unlike the others, you gave a (somewhat spurious IMO) reason for voting me. I think you're not coven, at least...
 

Foxxi

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Trouble is, I worry that seeing BN as anti-town is just my confirmation bias at work because he always seems to rand scum.
I could get aboard a Caito train, but I'd like to hear from him first.
I had BN as fairly null till he got bristly about my analysis... which is something he has a habit of doing when he feels like he's being caught for the wrong reasons. That said though, I had similar feelings about you which are changing as we interact. But he's a person of interest to me currently.
 

morrison

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Dreyski - 6 (Robo #198, Foxxi #199, Xanjori #257, Claws #259, Blind Ninja #265, Morrison #273)

Add myself as a townie, Mitch and MTR as confirmed town, and that's 9. Either that train isn't all green, or we yeet everyone who wasn't on it.
i would like to remind everyone of my reason for voting you in the first place was cause i didn't want to put a useless single vote onto foxxi when two established trains were already set, and i had/have robo as town so you were the answer. would have been MTR had the trains not flipped.
 

Foxxi

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Well I don't think Val is coven. His deviation from having any kind of investment in seeing something happen here kinda pings me as jestery. Like, in the last game ToL even as the sorc he was telling people they needed to vote and town only wins with yeets etc - he was saying things that gave the impression of a town pov to survive.

Here he's blatantly giving no fucks.
 

Foxxi

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i would like to remind everyone of my reason for voting you in the first place was cause i didn't want to put a useless single vote onto foxxi when two established trains were already set, and i had/have robo as town so you were the answer. would have been MTR had the trains not flipped.
Do you have any other thoughts to share? You say you have Robo as town, but how do you feel about others? If you wanted to vote me yesterday but felt it was pointless so close to EoD with established trains, why aren't you pursuing that now?
 

Blind Ninja

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I kinda wanna train BN - but I also really want caito to be pressured

I had BN as fairly null till he got bristly about my analysis... which is something he has a habit of doing when he feels like he's being caught for the wrong reasons. That said though, I had similar feelings about you which are changing as we interact. But he's a person of interest to me currently.

Feels a bit biased, because I didnt 100% agree with your logic on the 9 not voting.

Dont let this turn into another Mitch situation like the 9, math and statistics on D1.
 

Foxxi

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Feels a bit biased, because I didnt 100% agree with your logic on the 9 not voting.

Dont let this turn into another Mitch situation like the 9, math and statistics on D1.
I'm sorry, but there is nothing to agree or disagree with. It's not an opinion, it's an objective fact. There are 9 town. If they aren't in one pile of names, then they must exist in the other pile of names. This is basic logic and nothing new to mafia. It's just a bit more concrete here because unlike many of the games we've played recently we actually *know* how many town vs non-town we began with.
 

Foxxi

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And I'm making sure it's at least thought about since most people forget to look at it
 

Blind Ninja

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I'm sorry, but there is nothing to agree or disagree with. It's not an opinion, it's an objective fact. There are 9 town. If they aren't in one pile of names, then they must exist in the other pile of names. This is basic logic and nothing new to mafia. It's just a bit more concrete here because unlike many of the games we've played recently we actually *know* how many town vs non-town we began with.
I agree we know 9 town based on setup. And we can use the KNOWN flips of town and scum to point in a direction.

But saying anyone that is not flipped is town based on things theyve said in thread or you own thoughts/feelings on the matter, isnt completely logical.

People can and often do lie or stretch the truth. Do I think 3pups did with their role? Not likely. 3pups tends to be more on the straight and narrow side of things. But until 3pups is flipped, or information out proving they are town, we cant just say that they are town.

If we take peoples claims into account like you did with 3pups you would have had more people painted green.
 

Foxxi

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I agree we know 9 town based on setup. And we can use the KNOWN flips of town and scum to point in a direction.

But saying anyone that is not flipped is town based on things theyve said in thread or you own thoughts/feelings on the matter, isnt completely logical.

People can and often do lie or stretch the truth. Do I think 3pups did with their role? Not likely. 3pups tends to be more on the straight and narrow side of things. But until 3pups is flipped, or information out proving they are town, we cant just say that they are town.

If we take peoples claims into account like you did with 3pups you would have had more people painted green.
Lol. I colored pups green yeah, because I do believe him. But that was completely irrelevant to my point. **MITCH** was green. Mitch being green and voting means there has to be another non-town in the as yet unknown non-voters. Technically that could include pups - but I'm not going to bark up (haha) that tree since I believe him.

That there *has* to be another non-town in that group is based off mitch being green though. And for every town we confirm in the people voting, that will be another person in the non-voters that cannot be town.
 

Foxxi

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If you wanted to be pendantic about it - since you do not know for 100% fact I am town it could be argued mitch is currently the only one we truly know - and we see a non-town in matthieu. But it doesn't change the core fact that for every town we have voting there, that is one non-town in the non-voters. And I am sharing my pov as town that tells me I know there is at least one more there.
 

morrison

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Do you have any other thoughts to share? You say you have Robo as town, but how do you feel about others? If you wanted to vote me yesterday but felt it was pointless so close to EoD with established trains, why aren't you pursuing that now?
like i said at the time, i have no real argument against you, I'm just always piqued at very vocal leaders right out of the gate.

I've got no strong feelings on anybody, but I'll go through some iso's and jot down some thoughts.
 

CWE

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I'd say now I don't feel guilty about wanting him gone, but do u ever feel guilty about that?

If I didn't feel guilty when Caito was lynched 9 times in 9 days...
 

CWE

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EBWOP

Do I not do u

Look here you fucking phone...type what I want not what I press. Or else...
 

Caito

CWE Killer
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Had a day off from work and a full day of golf events. Honestly forgot all about this. Be mad at me, don’t be mad, not bothered either way. But I’ll begin catching up around my lunchtime
 

3puppies

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Unvote: Claws I am still suspicious of Claws. But

Vote: Caito Golf or not, I did not like that response. Felt like someone who is laying groundwork for a deflection story.
 

VoidKitten

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Day 2 Vote Count:

Caito - 5 (CWE #341, Foxxi #346, Claws #352, Satsu #373, 3puppies #449)
Robo - 1 (Val #430)

Not Voting: Blind Ninja, Caito, Dreyski, Listo, Mazer, morrison, Robozerim, Xanjori

It is now Day 2. Day 2 will end at 8:00pm ET on June 11th or when majority is reached. With 14 players alive, majority is 8 votes on a single player. If majority is not reached by end of day, there will be no elimination.
 

Foxxi

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Do dee do. Updated feels list:

**Town:**
Foxxi
Mitch
MTR

**Prolly Town:**
Pups

**Maybe Town:**
Robo
CWE
Drey

**Meh:**
Xan
Satsu
Mazer

**Sus:**
Claws
Morri
Listo
Val
BN
Caito

**Confirmed Non-Town:**
Matthieu - Executioner, neut evil
 

Mazer

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Gut feeling + 'vocal players=town players' mindset (flawed, I know)
Yeah. The most recent losing scum teams have lacked a true wolf. Feel like it's been the bigger predictor lately. You feel like there would typically at least be some moderate, unless they had a bad draw.
 

Mazer

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Well I don't think Val is coven. His deviation from having any kind of investment in seeing something happen here kinda pings me as jestery. Like, in the last game ToL even as the sorc he was telling people they needed to vote and town only wins with yeets etc - he was saying things that gave the impression of a town pov to survive.

Here he's blatantly giving no fucks.
Eh. When I've played scum with him before, there have been rando appearance days. Mid read.
 

Mazer

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I'd say now I don't feel guilty about wanting him gone, but do u ever feel guilty about that?

If I didn't feel guilty when Caito was lynched 9 times in 9 days...
In fairness, he wasn't lynched all the time that game. He was just constantly killed.


That was the closest you will ever come to nirvana.
 

Mazer

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Unvote: Claws I am still suspicious of Claws. But

Vote: Caito Golf or not, I did not like that response. Felt like someone who is laying groundwork for a deflection story.
In fairness, you said the same thing about me, and not believing that I was on a weekend trip recently.
 

Mazer

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For those who have played this set-up more often, what do you think the odds are that scum would not set up or groundwork some early claims?
 

Xanjori

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Giving Caito a bit of time to see if he gleams anything from his ketchup, but wlll otherwise vote there
 

Foxxi

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For those who have played this set-up more often, what do you think the odds are that scum would not set up or groundwork some early claims?
I've never played this - I don't think fake claims would be hard to do per se, but I think they may be hard to maintain. I know if I were scum I'd be paranoid about bread crumbing something that would later contradict - that was me in my first ToL game, which is kinda similar to this
 

Foxxi

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Stop Motion Artist GIF by Caitlin Craggs
Caito trying to read the Signs as foretold by the Seer Heinz
 

Satsu

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I've never played this - I don't think fake claims would be hard to do per se, but I think they may be hard to maintain
Yeah if he fake claims we ll find out eventually. if he real claims there is always a risk that guess a role killer is in game. If he doesnt do anything he gets yeeted.

So many options
 

Satsu

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There is no counter train and no one bothers. Is it normal in this setup. Feels so odd.
 

Foxxi

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There is no counter train and no one bothers. Is it normal in this setup. Feels so odd.
I was actually just pondering this, but I'm not sure we have a "normal" to really baseline to. The closest thing any of us have played to this style is ToL -- ToS being converted to a forum format is going to be a new experience even for people who have played ToS in it's original format.

But even outside of that, this group of players isn't always great with the concept of counter trains. And honestly, I'm not sure we have enough engagement from people to support a counter train without then lacking the numbers to finish either of them.
 

Blind Ninja

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Agree that we likely have some scum hiding in the LHF. And its been a while since we've had a true power wolf.

So if we look at the LHF:
-Caito (3 posts)- Promised a response after readthrough. Nothing since, granted that was only 6hrs ago.
-Val (7posts)- Voting Robo, with no context. Wanted to avenge Matt, who flipped 3p
-Morrison(7posts)- Nothing really stands out, aside from wanting to vote Foxxi then voting Drey.

Also feel these are likely our top 3 town.
-Foxxi being this active and engaging is not in her wolf game. So she is at least not Coven. Can see her potentially being 3p, but she feels more town. Not discounting the possibility of 3p.
-3pups doesnt seem to be the person to fake results/actions. Not sure if they would come out and essentially claim like that if they knew there was essentially an anti-claim killer as a possible roll.
-Robo taking the time/energy to look for the potential killers of the exe feels townie to me. Could it be faked? Yes. I dont feel Robo puts in the effort as coven. So puts my read of him in the same boat as Foxxi. Likely town, possibility of 3p.

@Foxxi I dont know why, but the way your read list is set up annoys me. Dont care that im down in the sus pile, but the known dead 3p in its own catagory, but known dead town up in the town.
 

Satsu

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I actually dont want a CW right now. I want him to claim something or say something and go from there. There are still over 6hours.

Otherwise look here.

**Sus:**
Claws
Morri
Listo
Val
BN
Caito
 

Satsu

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Seriously CWE is so easy to read that it shouldnt even be a question. Or i am such a CWE read master.

Do you have doubts? Its ok
 

VoidKitten

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A bit over 6 hours remaining in Day 2.

Note: Because you are all guinea pigs, I am toying with the idea of making all future days in this game last 24 hours. I already decided to make that change for future games, but I don't know if I feel like waiting to see how I like 24 hour days until everyone else runs their games before I go again :D

Just a heads up that Day 3 may or may not be shorter.
 

Foxxi

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*points at list*

I also have CWE as town currently - though I am aware and mindful that I don't think he's said anything that he wouldn't say if he were non-town. Been helpful with mechanics and possibilities, but that can be done as any alignment - it's truthful.

But I am also not worried about being wrong about him because I expect he will eventually say something that will firmly place him.
 

Foxxi

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Well, I have him in "maybe" town, which is as high as anyone will go if I don't have a concrete idea of what they are that proves they aren't neut.
 

VoidKitten

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Day 2 Vote Count:

Caito - 6 (CWE #341, Foxxi #346, Claws #352, Satsu #373, 3puppies #449, Blind Ninja #480)
Robo - 1 (Val #430)

Not Voting: Caito, Dreyski, Listo, Mazer, morrison, Robozerim, Xanjori

It is now Day 2. Day 2 will end at 8:00pm ET on June 11th or when majority is reached. With 14 players alive, majority is 8 votes on a single player. If majority is not reached by end of day, there will be no elimination.
 

Satsu

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Lol there is actually a counter train. Come on val join us Robos not happening.
 

Robozerim

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Caito is clearly at the bottom of the posting list. Hard to get a read on somebody who doesn't post at all, but they are if nothing else not helpful. I am content with a removal of the person who isn't contributing at all.

Vote: Caito
 

VoidKitten

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Day 2 Vote Count:

Caito - 7 (CWE #341, Foxxi #346, Claws #352, Satsu #373, 3puppies #449, Blind Ninja #480, Robozerim #484)
Robo - 1 (Val #430)

Not Voting: Caito, Dreyski, Listo, Mazer, morrison, Xanjori

It is now Day 2. Day 2 will end at 8:00pm ET on June 11th or when majority is reached. With 14 players alive, majority is 8 votes on a single player. If majority is not reached by end of day, there will be no elimination.
 

Foxxi

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On one hand this feels like it could be DADV. On the other hand, caito hasn't offered anything... not who he'd rather vote, not why we shouldn't be sus of him.... and even if he isn't coven and thus coven are sittin chill giving that "dadv" feel - that doesn't make him town.

We're at L-1 but we still have a few hours. I would *like* @Caito to come weigh in if he is town and give us... something.
 

Xanjori

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If Caito flips red I feel the coven teamare amongst the lower posters, considering the lack of effort to save him
 

Dreyski

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Vote: Xanjori
Legit 50/50 on Xan, but don't want to hammer Caito just yet. If nothing happens before end of day, I can move my vote to him.
 

Caito

CWE Killer
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So many votes for me. Such a shame. Won’t get y’all closer to winning, I guarantee that.

CWE, you asked for a reason. I took some time looking at your, integrity. Didn’t vote you yet. I have a guarantee that you are 50% good guy.

Best I got when it comes to you so far.
 

Mazer

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Oh noes you found me out im bad at english and math
Bad maths can strike any of us at any time. Except for mitch. He can math and rap. And would often do educational raps for his students.
 

Caito

CWE Killer
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If Caito flips red I feel the coven teamare amongst the lower posters, considering the lack of effort to save him
He won’t.


Also, most of y’all that have played with me for a while should now I’m not gonna get flustered by pressure. Standard response when people wanna “pressure” me is to say “nahh” and let whatever happens happen.
 

Caito

CWE Killer
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Also, whoever said something to the effect of golf not being good enough, you can kindly fuck yourself off mate.
 

Mazer

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I've never played this - I don't think fake claims would be hard to do per se, but I think they may be hard to maintain. I know if I were scum I'd be paranoid about bread crumbing something that would later contradict - that was me in my first ToL game, which is kinda similar to this
It's an interesting perspective. Just wondering if the odds work out differently here. Of course, I one time went to far down the rabbit hole with Listo. So, I don't fucking know.
 

Mazer

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Agree that we likely have some scum hiding in the LHF. And its been a while since we've had a true power wolf.

So if we look at the LHF:
-Caito (3 posts)- Promised a response after readthrough. Nothing since, granted that was only 6hrs ago.
-Val (7posts)- Voting Robo, with no context. Wanted to avenge Matt, who flipped 3p
-Morrison(7posts)- Nothing really stands out, aside from wanting to vote Foxxi then voting Drey.

Also feel these are likely our top 3 town.
-Foxxi being this active and engaging is not in her wolf game. So she is at least not Coven. Can see her potentially being 3p, but she feels more town. Not discounting the possibility of 3p.
-3pups doesnt seem to be the person to fake results/actions. Not sure if they would come out and essentially claim like that if they knew there was essentially an anti-claim killer as a possible roll.
-Robo taking the time/energy to look for the potential killers of the exe feels townie to me. Could it be faked? Yes. I dont feel Robo puts in the effort as coven. So puts my read of him in the same boat as Foxxi. Likely town, possibility of 3p.

@Foxxi I dont know why, but the way your read list is set up annoys me. Dont care that im down in the sus pile, but the known dead 3p in its own catagory, but known dead town up in the town.
So nobody trying to wolf right now you think?
 

Mazer

Spirit Breaker
Joined
Jan 9, 2023
Messages
2,041
I actually dont want a CW right now. I want him to claim something or say something and go from there. There are still over 6hours.

Otherwise look here.

**Sus:**
Claws
Morri
Listo
Val
BN
Caito
Why no counter though? If he's leading, he would maybe need pressure to get himself off and your result is accomplished?
 

Foxxi

Administrator
Joined
Jan 9, 2023
Messages
1,517
He won’t.


Also, most of y’all that have played with me for a while should now I’m not gonna get flustered by pressure. Standard response when people wanna “pressure” me is to say “nahh” and let whatever happens happen.
Who would you prefer to see chopped?
 

Mazer

Spirit Breaker
Joined
Jan 9, 2023
Messages
2,041
Vote: Xanjori
Legit 50/50 on Xan, but don't want to hammer Caito just yet. If nothing happens before end of day, I can move my vote to him.
What's the Xan argument?

And why is claws mad at me?
 
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