Mafia 1 - Throne of Suspicion

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Unvote: Badger

Vote: Psycho

The only reason why I haven't considered voting you until now is because the prince told me he had a town lean on you.

 

[morrison]

I figured he may have targeted you again for a night chat. I also thought you guys whispered after that, but looking at it, that's not the case. It doesn't change the fact that I claimed to Badger, whether you know it or not.

The silence on Badger is a maybe, and would be the most likely scenario to explain how today's gone down. Though honestly, not sure how quickly the reaper would have been able to get to it. Unless cult can somehow silence and wanted to frame me.

Again, I don't understand the full mechanics of this setup but I targeted Badger for defense last night. That's a fact.

the only way badger was silenced by cult was if there was a successful recruit n3/n4 and it was the butler who was recruited, thus converting them to the invoker.

 

[morrison]

That’s an interesting claim…

last tuesday kareemah claimed butler and badger replied to her with this...

 

[morrison]

if badge was silenced by the invoker, it's a 12 hour limit.

@Badger if you are waiting out a time limit, plz do reply as soon as you're able so we know which way to go on this.

 

[morrison]

only other option, like i believe satsu mentioned, would be silencing from the scorned. they're win condition is to live to see two marked players executed, so it's certainly possible psycho is marked and they're trying to get him offed by silencing badger. but that would require them knowing that psycho was targeting badger, which i don't know is possible.

 

[Satsu]

the only way badger was silenced by cult was if there was a successful recruit n3/n4 and it was the butler who was recruited, thus converting them to the invoker.

They also get invoker from drunk hunter and knight, but come on that is a 12h silence and this phase is already going for how long? 30h?

 

[morrison]

so as it stands, i think the most likely scenarios are psycho as reaper or kareemah as invoker. from there, we decide who is a higher priority.

 

[VoidKitten]

Vote Count:

6 - Psycho (CWE #1163, Xanjori #1170, Foxxi #1172, LDG #1193, Matthieu #1196, Val #1201)
1 - Val (Psycho #1169)

With 14 players alive, majority for nomination is 8 votes on a single player.

About 3.5 hours remaining in the nomination phase

 

[morrison]

They also get invoker from drunk hunter and knight, but come on that is a 12h silence and this phase is already going for how long? 30h?

little over 16 hours. i believe the silence timers start the moment the mod gets the action, so it's possible there was a delayed beginning to the timer and badger just happened to not speak before the silence was submitted and seen by the mod.

if badger has been silenced instead of reaped, he'll be able to speak during the trial phase, which will help inform what we should do. if psycho gets the nom and stands trial, and badger never shows up, it'd be hard not to go through with the execute. if badge does show up, and psycho is on trial, we likely gotta pardon and turn our attention elsewhere.

 

[morrison]

and yeah, drunk, hunter and knight can also become the invoker. i just got excited after seeing the butler since i remembered someone claiming that role.

psycho claiming knight means he could have been recruited and is the invoker. if he was targeting badger n4, it would likely be chaining him to prevent him from acting.

badger, if able to speak, would be able to tell us if he was blocked n4, which means silencing him come d5 would be a decent plan of action...

 

[morrison]

i think we nominate psycho. if badger was silenced he'll be able to show before the end of the trial phase and let us know about if he was prevented from acting n4 and we can execute/pardon based off that.

 

[Satsu]

Sure you can hammer or we can until timer runs out to give Badger more time.

Vote: Psycho

 

[PsychoSoldier]

Vote: Psycho

Let's run it

 

[VoidKitten]

Final Day 5 Nomination Vote Count:

8 - Psycho (CWE #1163, Xanjori #1170, Foxxi #1172, LDG #1193, Matthieu #1196, Val #1201, Satsu #1212, Psycho #1213)

With 14 players alive, majority for nomination is 8 votes on a single player.

—--------------
Arrows flew across the field as bullseye after bullseye was nailed. As expected, Ser Bertholdt rose through the ranks, defeating any challenger. Now it was time for the participants to put forth their player. Before they could act, a message rang out. “The following battle will be one of bow against bow. Flesh against flesh. Choose your participant, but all of you must agree who is sent or none shall be. Shame would follow if that happened.

Everyone panicked and chose Psycho. “Psycho, tell us why you shouldn’t have to fight Ser Bertholdt”

Psycho is now on trial

All votes have been reset and you may begin voting for execute/pardon/abstain.

The trial phase will end at 8:00pm ET on Jan 24th or when a unanimous decision is reached.

With 13 people valid for this trial, 13 votes are required to execute.

 

[PsychoSoldier]

I targeted Foxxi for circle of death on N1

All my reads are legit. Voting me is smart, but you guys need to seriously start looking at the cult if you want to win. They have at least one person on the loose from N1 guaranteed and most likely have a second by now, or at least will be guaranteed to have one on N5. Don't just trust the claims. Converted cult members have a ready made claim, and if you're not careful, they're gonna overtake you.

Have fun, y'all. Good target, LDG.

 

[PsychoSoldier]

Vote: Execute

 

[Satsu]

Mazer died from circle of death so that would mean he targeted Foxxi N1. However it thats the case why would cult bleed Foxxi? Wierd stuff.

 

[morrison]

either claws saying 'fuck it' after being targeted or the hunter decided to bleed foxxi.

mazer targetted foxxi n1. did he actually use eradicate, trying to kill foxxi and lora, but GOT GOT because of psycho's circle on foxxi? does that circle prevent foxxi's death if he was using eradicate? if not, she'd either need to be protected or death immune. her being a protection target n1 is reasonable.

if he was trying to recruit, either it failed and they got a rando, it failed and they got foxxi or it worked and they got foxxi. would psycho's circle kill mazer off and cancel the brainwash attempt?

 

[Foxxi]

Well that was not what I expected....I was the target? It doesn't make sense. If I were the N1 target of the circle, why didn't psycho just reap me? Or show even the slightest bit of suspicion of me? But mostly, why leave me alive if he knew Mazer targeted me?

 

[morrison]

so badger has been reaped, therefore still shows/counts as a living player, correct? which means we can't reach the execution off unanimous votes, yes?

 

[Foxxi]

I don't know what to make of this right now, but whatever happened N1, it wasn't me becoming cult. But I also don't see why psycho would lie about this right now? He admitted to being the reaper - he's going to be executed without a doubt - what does he have to gain by tossing out false info here?

 

[Jarrod1983]

I believe Badger wasn't recruited before N2 so less likely to be cult, and we know at least as late as D4 he wasn't cult. Assumingly MTR found out Xan isn't cult last night, so less likely he was converted, and definitely not converted before last night. Satsu also wasn't cult and if he is would have had to have been converted last night, and I have suspicions either he or Jarrod is the reaper.

I trust MTR isn't cult due to how he went about claiming info about Xan.

We know CWE isn't cult.

Morrison could be a cult king, but I still have good feels there and he wouldn't have been a recruit.

That leaves Val, Foxxi, LDG, kareemah, Matthieu, Future, and one of Jarrod/Satsu

I think kareemah has too much of a target on her that could backfire if recruited, so unless she was recruited N1, unlikely

Matthieu is right that trying to convert him is a risk that I'm not sure cult would have taken before maybe last night.

That leaves Val, Foxxi, LDG, Future, one of Jarrod/Satsu

Val is the one that stands out as having changed tack and been more opportunistic the last couple phases. The way he jumped right to voting Xan and then immediately followed up with Badger, who was increasingly likely to have been reaped, is not a good look for me, and not the place I think town!Val would poke.

LDG is LDG and my whole argument there has been that just because we know she's an observer doesn't clear her in this setup. Though, now that I think about it, I don't think she'd be able to track after being converted? So since she correctly tracked me, she's probably not cult right now.

Foxxi hasn't seemed to be looking for cult at all the last couple phases which is interesting, but I'm willing to write it off and focusing on what's right in front of her and not giving her overall thoughts as much to try and stay alive for once. But it's definitely standing out that she's zeroing in on me instead of having a wider view.

Future is probably a toss-up, as is Jarrod/Satsu (though less likely Satsu is cult due to MTR's claim)

Hence, my vote is on Val

100% I'm not the Reaper.

 

[LemonDemonGirl]

Vote: Execute
Sus

 

[Foxxi]

so badger has been reaped, therefore still shows/counts as a living player, correct? which means we can't reach the execution off unanimous votes, yes?

And yeah... I think you're the only way we actually get to execute today

 

[morrison]

Well that was not what I expected....I was the target? It doesn't make sense. If I were the N1 target of the circle, why didn't psycho just reap me? Or show even the slightest bit of suspicion of me? But mostly, why leave me alive if he knew Mazer targeted me?

he was immune to conversion and would revive if killed at night as long as he kept one soul available. probably figured if you were successfully recruited there wasn't much the cult could do to him, but an active cult could help to thin the herd for his win condition.

 

[morrison]

And yeah... I think you're the only way we actually get to execute today

yeah, that's what i figured. i'll obvs hold off to allow time for input and discussion. shouldn't be much of a need to rush this through

 

[Foxxi]

he was immune to conversion and would revive if killed at night as long as he kept one soul available. probably figured if you were successfully recruited there wasn't much the cult could do to him, but an active cult could help to thin the herd for his win condition.

I suppose that would make some amount of sense... though while the reaper is certainly hard to kill, it's not impossible. They'll only revive from one attack in a night, and these games often have a few of those running around.

 

[Foxxi]

Although this game certainly hasn't had nearly as many deaths as I would expect

 

[morrison]

LDG is LDG and my whole argument there has been that just because we know she's an observer doesn't clear her in this setup. Though, now that I think about it, I don't think she'd be able to track after being converted? So since she correctly tracked me, she's probably not cult right now.

so if ldg was the observer, if she was converted, she'd have become the seeker and could have used the identify night action to track you. so she's not cleared from cult, yet.

 

[Foxxi]

I wonder if psycho had been redirected, or had his targets swapped, if he would even know? Is it possible the circle landed on someone else and he wouldn't even know who? Damnit. Now I wish Listo were still here >.< I understand a lot of the roles and how they function, but not all the mechanical minutiae

 

[LemonDemonGirl]

so if ldg was the observer, if she was converted, she'd have become the seeker and could have used the identify night action to track you. so she's not cleared from cult, yet.

I'm out of Overlook charges, so no.

 

[Matthieu]

either claws saying 'fuck it' after being targeted or the hunter decided to bleed foxxi.

mazer targetted foxxi n1. did he actually use eradicate, trying to kill foxxi and lora, but GOT GOT because of psycho's circle on foxxi? does that circle prevent foxxi's death if he was using eradicate? if not, she'd either need to be protected or death immune. her being a protection target n1 is reasonable.

if he was trying to recruit, either it failed and they got a rando, it failed and they got foxxi or it worked and they got foxxi. would psycho's circle kill mazer off and cancel the brainwash attempt?

I didn't target Foxxi with a bleed and I can prove it, if need be, since I have a charge left. Which has the added benefit of also proving that I haven't been converted to the cult.

 

[Foxxi]

I didn't target Foxxi with a bleed and I can prove it, if need be, since I have a charge left. Which has the added benefit of also proving that I haven't been converted to the cult.

This is awful logic grae XD you offering to bleed someone proves nothing. If you were converted N1 then you are the cult leader - who could back this offer up - or you are an invoker.... and have a cult leader who can bleed someone to make your claim seem true.

 

[ForgottenHold]

Vote: Execute

 

[Matthieu]

This is awful logic grae XD you offering to bleed someone proves nothing. If you were converted N1 then you are the cult leader - who could back this offer up - or you are an invoker.... and have a cult leader who can bleed someone to make your claim seem true.

Fair enough.

At any rate I'm hoping I get night killed so I don't have to try and work out who is cult and who isn't..

Vote: Execute

 

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Vote: Execute

 

[morrison]

I'm out of Overlook charges, so no.

this doesn't matter. if you were converted to cult and became the seeker, you would have 2x identify actions to use at night.

 

[LemonDemonGirl]

this doesn't matter. if you were converted to cult and became the seeker, you would have 2x identify actions to use at night.

Right. You're still on my sus list though.

 

[Satsu]

You have a sus list? Am I on it?

 

[morrison]

Right. You're still on my sus list though.

you ain't paying attention then.

 

[LemonDemonGirl]

You have a sus list? Am I on it?

Afaik you weren't one of the people trying to get me executed so no

 

[Satsu]

You told us what you did true and honest so you were pardoned. Its that easy.

 

[Xanjori]

Vote: Execute

 

[Foxxi]

From my pov the only things that can have happened are Mazer tried to kill me and was prevented, he tried to recruit me and that was prevented, or psycho was redirected and we have no clear idea who his circle actually fell on.

If this is a world where Mazer tried to kill N1, then the cult is just gone and yeeting psycho ends the game.

If he tried to recruit anyone, whether the target was actually me and it was prevented, or someone else that psycho was redirected to - we absolutely have at least one cult member.

I don't see how we can know which is the case until after psycho is gone though. I don't think psycho was trying to mislead us after admitting he is the reaper, he's got no motivation and it's not his style I don't think... so he genuinely believes there is still cult, and was probably also legitimately trying to search for it - which makes me wonder if I have been too quick to write Val off as just doing Val things.

 

[Satsu]

You can also look at it like this.
If you visited a player n1 and you are alive then that player wasnt Mazers target.

 

[Foxxi]

You can also look at it like this.
If you visited a player n1 and you are alive then that player wasnt Mazers target.

Mostly. Unless they were death immune or healed by someone else.

 

[Foxxi]

Or they were occupied and have a role where they wouldn't know they had been. I think I hate this game.

 

[Matthieu]

I'm not sure if it'd play into things, though I defended myself on N1. So anyone with hostile intent deflected to me would have been killed by me. I'd assume the flavour text would involve a bear, though, if that was what happened.

 

[Kareemah]

sorry I’ve been absent
Vote: Execute

 

[MTR]

Want to get a vote in before I forget again.

Vote: Execute

 

[Satsu]

Vote: Execute

 

[Foxxi]

Vote: execute?
We can't actually yeet him without Morri using his king thing though, because badger can't vote
@morrison -- deadline is approaching, don't forget to don't forget to put that in please?

 

[Satsu]

If there are issues with decide fate tell that in advance so that prince can jail and execute him. That has to be a day action.

 

[Foxxi]

I don't think there are issues with it. Morri was talking about doing it yesterday, but not wanting to put the action in too early... my concern is he has habitually not been here at EoD - which is getting really close

 

[Val the Moofia Boss]

We could overthrow him and elect a new king.

 

[Satsu]

Got no issues with electing new king. As long as its me.

 

[PsychoSoldier]

Wait, why can't you yeet me? Is maj necessary?

 

[PsychoSoldier]

You also hit hammer, so I'm confused

 

[Satsu]

I am not a ToL expert by any means, but I think it was theorycrafted that the safest option in that case is to elect a neurtal,so CWE would make a fine choice.

 

[Satsu]

Your vote doesn't count here. We need everyone to vote including Badger.

 

[Satsu]

But the king can override one trial so you don't need to worry.

 

[morrison]

if we don't have anything we wanna go over, i can put the order in now.

i may not pop in during phases in thread and add anything, but i always got time to pull up discord on my phone to do an action real quick. but like i said, we can do it early and get this night phase started if everybody wants.

 

[morrison]

You also hit hammer, so I'm confused

killing listo/the fool made it so we needed a unanimous vote for pardon or execute in order for it to go through. since you reaped badger, he still counts as alive right now, but won't be able to vote, so we'll never get the unanimous vote. so in order to execute, i need to use my day action to push it through unilaterally.

 

[VoidKitten]

Psycho shugged his shoulders and told everyone that he probably deserved to go against Ser Bertholdt. After all, it was Ser Bertholdt that killed his father all those years ago. Finally Psycho would have his revenge.

He stepped forward, grabbing his bow and taking up refuge behind a barrier. The horn was sounded and the battle unfolded. Unfortunately, the moment Psycho popped out his head, an arrow found its way through his skull. Psycho fell to the ground dead and the King pronounced Ser Bertholdt the winner of the archery competition.

Psycho, playing as The Reaper, has been executed by the King and no logbook was found.

—-------------

The participants stood shocked at the bloodshed meted out by Ser Bertholdt. They all looked amongst one another and jumped when they realized someone was on the floor next to them, gasping for air. A sword had found its way into his aorta.

Badger, playing as The Apostle, has been killed and a logbook was found.

Spoiler

Logbook:

As I lay upon my deathbed, good luck town in finding the reaper. I believe it may be between Psycho, Xan and Satsu…or it’s probably that darned Caito’s fault.

—-------------

Foxxi was seen whispering to Future

—-------------

It is now Night 5. Night 5 will end on January 25th at 8:00pm ET or when all night actions are submitted. Actions must be submitted by 6:00pm ET for them to be valid.

 

[VoidKitten]

After the gruesome events of the prior day, the participants continued their search and that meant another night. They snuggled into their tents, some of them leaving to perform some deeds, hoping the night would be peaceful. As the sun rose, the birds sang across the land, heralding another day of the tournament. Everyone assembled for the next event, the acting competition. They looked around and noticed everyone had shown up.

—---------------------

Living Players:

1. Morrison - King
2. Xanjori
3. Kareemah
4. CWE
5. MTR
6. Foxximcleod
7. Val the Moofia Boss
8. Matthieu
9. FutureHold
10. LemonDemonGirl
11. Satsu
12. Jarrod1983

It is now Day 6. Day 6 will end at 8:00pm ET on Jan 27th. The nomination phase will end at 8:00pm ET on Jan 23th or when majority is reached. With 12 players alive, majority for nomination is 7.

 

[MTR]

No death. So maybe another recruit? I am starting to hate this game. I am so lost.

 

[Matthieu]

Doesn't really matter much now but if Badger thought the reaper was between Psycho, Xan and Satsu then the latter two likely weren't recruited before Psycho's demise. Of course, that could have changed during the latest night phase...

That being said, if the cult aren't killing then they're obviously recruiting so anyone who has claimed but not yet perished is fair game. I'd say including myself but I come with the 'oops lol' problem of taking someone out with me if I'm eliminated which makes it tricky. So either take me out now and mitigate it with someone you don't mind losing alongside me serving as the hammer...or place your trust in me.

I won't lie, I have absolutely no idea where to go unless we reckon LDG was recruited. I know if I were cult, I'd be trying to kill or convert a role who can look into what's going on at night.

 

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Hrm. Not sure if town has the tools needed to win. The paladin could cop check someone on one day, get an innocent result, and then that night or some time after that same player could be converted, but we would have no way of knowing unless the cop checked them again. The paladin can only check once per night and there are 12 players, so the odds are low of hitting a cultist on any given night. Likewise lynching is going to amount to throwing darts at the board and we are statistically unlikely to hit. Meanwhile the cult is growing every night. We will be statistically more likely to hit cult as the playerbase shrinks but then our margin of error decreases as well. And night actions aren't publicized by the mod like in Rajah games so we can't narrow people down by that either.

 

[MTR]

Yeah I checked Badger early and then he was recruited after that so yeah I am pretty much hoping to get lucky.

 

[Foxxi]

I had really hoped the game was going to end with psycho's yeet, but that was too much to hope for it seems...odds are a recruit was at least attempted I imagine, and I agree with Grae that the investigation roles would be the most likely targets, but Val is also right - even if MTR hasn't been converted, he can't check people faster than the cult could recruit so this is going to be difficult.

I don't think MTR, Xan, LDG or kareemah were the original recruit. MTR and Xan because of yesterday, and LDG because she successfully tracked psycho the night prior.

 

[LemonDemonGirl]

>No whispers
>No deaths
Lol?
Are you sure @VoidKitten ?

 

[morrison]

we also have to take into account the one night cooldown on the ability upon a successful recruit and the fact the recruit attempt could fail. plus all neutral players are immune to conversion. it's obviously not gonna be easy, but i don't know that it's a perilous as it seems.

 

[Satsu]

If Xan didnt lie about being redirected to himself then drunk wasnt n1 recruit.
If I was right with knight attacking me n4 then knight wasnt n1 recruit.
If knight attacked me then I wasnt n1 recruit either because cult doesnt have heals.

 

[morrison]

1. Morrison - King
2. Xanjori
3. Kareemah
4. CWE
5. MTR
6. Foxximcleod
7. Val the Moofia Boss
8. Matthieu
9. FutureHold
10. LemonDemonGirl
11. Satsu
12. Jarrod1983

let's just put some info straight down to paper here...

conversion immune, confirmed
morrison - king
cwe- the alchemist

roles, claimed
kareemah - the butler
cwe - the alchemist
mtr - the paladin
matthieu - the hunter
LDG - the observer

roles, confirmed
cwe - the alchemist
mtr - the paladin
LDG - the observer

wild cards
xan
foxxi
val
future
satsu
jarrod

if i'm missing anything on these lists, please feel free to update them. i'm sure i didn't pick up on some possible claims.

what are the chances there were any double-up's on the non-unique roles?

 

[Satsu]

Logbook: Satsu - Physician

D1-Nothing
N1-Heal MTR - no info about target protected from death.
D2-Nothing
N2-Nothing
D3-Exhume Mazer -killed by Reaper
N3-Heal Foxxi - target protected from death.
D4-Nothing
N4-Self Care - protected myself from death
D5-Nothing
N6-Heal MTR - no info about target protected from death

 

[Satsu]

what are the chances there were any double-up's on the non-unique roles?

Very low I'd say. This is a 19 players game instead of 16 man standard and there are still roles that I don't think are in this game.
Noble and princess.

 

[Val the Moofia Boss]

N1-Heal MTR - no info about target protected from death.

N6-Heal MTR - no info about target protected from death

N4-Self Care - protected myself from death

N3-Heal Foxxi - target protected from death.

Are you saying that you were told that someone tried to kill your doc targets on N3 and N4, and that you weren't told on N1 and N6?

 

[Satsu]

Thats correct. I dont think someone tried to kill Foxxi n3, bleed was real. But I am not told player names. I protected my target from death.

 

[Satsu]

You can cross examine that and ask CWE what they were told.

 

[Foxxi]

>No whispers
>No deaths
Lol?
Are you sure @VoidKitten ?

who did you track and where did they go?

 

[Foxxi]

If Xan didnt lie about being redirected to himself then drunk wasnt n1 recruit.
If I was right with knight attacking me n4 then knight wasnt n1 recruit.
If knight attacked me then I wasnt n1 recruit either because cult doesnt have heals.

The first is true, the last is true if we take your word about protecting yourself. But why are you assuming it was a knight attacking you, and that that knight would not be cult attacking you on n4?

 

[Foxxi]

let's just put some info straight down to paper here...

conversion immune, confirmed
morrison - king
cwe- the alchemist

roles, claimed
kareemah - the butler
cwe - the alchemist
mtr - the paladin
matthieu - the hunter
LDG - the observer

roles, confirmed
cwe - the alchemist
mtr - the paladin
LDG - the observer

wild cards
xan
foxxi
val
future
satsu
jarrod

if i'm missing anything on these lists, please feel free to update them. i'm sure i didn't pick up on some possible claims.

what are the chances there were any double-up's on the non-unique roles?

Prince is also a guaranteed unique role I believe, and I think it is also conversion immune

 

[Foxxi]

Very low I'd say. This is a 19 players game instead of 16 man standard and there are still roles that I don't think are in this game.
Noble and princess.

Low but not impossible. We had a double of a role the last time we ran this game too. I wouldn't expect more than one double though

 

[LemonDemonGirl]

who did you track and where did they go?

I did do anything because I figured there was no point.

 

[LemonDemonGirl]

*Didn't do anything

 

[Satsu]

But why are you assuming it was a knight attacking you, and that that knight would not be cult attacking you on n4?

Right it is also possible that is was an erradicate on me and Psycho. He wouldnt die if he had a soul.
In that case it is even possible that cult thought Psycho not dying would make him a reaper and since Badger was reaped they could make a claim Psycho visited Badger. However that part is unlikely. Reaped targets cant talk and i believe that also includes scumchat. LDG claim came to early for that. I also refuse to believe LDG would come with an idea to sacrifice a reaped cultist.

 

[CWE]

Lol

 

[Satsu]

Badger had me and Psycho as reaper candidates in his logbook that adds to erradicate theory. They would be sus about their targets not dying.

 

[Satsu]

Unfortunately that would add knight as a potential n1 convert.

 

[morrison]

1 King
1 Prince
1+ Sheriff or Paladin
9-10 Additional Blue Dragon Members
2 Unseen or Cult Members
1 Neutral Killing
3-4 Other Neutrals

going off this breakdown, because there was a reaper, the sorcerer and possessor shouldn't be in the pool for the remaining neutrals, yeah? or do you think we're meant to read this as one guaranteed neutral killer and three to four other neutral roles from the list? i feel like balance-wise, it's likely the former.

reaper was the neutral killer. alchemist, sellsword and fool as confirmed other neutrals, with the latter two dead already. that leaves us with cwe and possibly one other person as neutral, depending on how the roles broke down, since either the neutrals or blue dragons would get the extra player. if there were four neutrals, that then gives us a total of four living players who are immune to conversion(me, cwe, the prince and the final neutral). so that'd be a third of the player base guaranteed to not, or ever will, be cult.

not accounting for possible dupes in roles, the only neutrals that could be in play are the inquisitor, the merc and the scorned.

since badger converted to apostle, he was either the mystic or the noble. looking through his ISO, i don't have a feel for one over the other. when claws puts a vote on him, he says it's a really bad idea, which i read as him having a role with strong actions, and i'd consider the noble's actions as more important than the mystic. but then in an earlier reply to foxxi, he blatantly says 'it's a bit mistifying isn't it,' which feels pretty blatant now with hindsight.

someone had to have been recruited n1 or else cult would've died after we executed claws. obviously wasn't badger or else he would've been cult leader from n2 onward and not apostle. so someone was recruited n1 and they are the current cult leader.

badger initiated whispers with foxxi on d2, and foxxi hard defended badger against nominations that same day phase. badger eventually ends up as cult. that's a fun thread to tug on. she did take a hard stance against claws, who was cult leader at that point, putting a vote on badger by putting a vote on him, but she did eventually move her vote off him to matthieu, basically to prod activity. moved to diva next to do the same. was the fourth vote on claws as his train picked up steam, but had an easy out to not vote for him because of an error in the vote tally by void. there was enough spread on the nominations at that time that she didn't really need to jump onto claws for any tactical reason. we know she was bled, which could've only come from claws the cult leader or the hunter. obvs claws makes the most sense. if foxxi was successfully recruited n1, this would be quite the gamble; claws is on his way to being executed, foxxi is set to become the cult leader heading into n2 with no recruit charge. do they have claws bleed foxxi to construct a narrative and just have foxxi make some pleas for healing from any of the potential parties that could, hoping the case for her being blue dragon is strong enough that they will? she wouldn't die from the bleed until after n3, when the recruit action would recharge, but without the guarantee of a conversion. that's skating too thin of an edge, i think. so i'm inclined to lean foxxi was not the n1 recruit.

 

[morrison]

on n2 the n1 recruit becomes cult leader and can't do anything besides eradicate. nobody died n2, so they either chose not to act, were blocked by the butler's serve wine action or whiffed on the targets and hit death immune or protected roles. n3 is the earliest badger could have been converted. if he was converted n3, then this past night phase(n5) was a potential recruit night, and given no one died, that would be the likely scenario unless a block or total whiff occurred, which feels unlikely. if badge was converted n3, then at most we have a cult leader(n1 recruit) and a n5 recruit.

if the n3 recruit failed, that means badge was converted n4, the same night he was reaped by psycho, which left only the cult leader with no recruit charge for n5.

unless all actions immediately recharge upon a new leader being promoted, which then fucks everything up cause that means a recruit was possible on n2.

 

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Before I go to bed:

Vote: Vote Jarrod

 

[Matthieu]

Vote: Jarrod

 

[Satsu]

Did you random too Grae?

 

[Jarrod1983]

This is wrong. I'm telling you all right now. I feel like Matthieu is seeing a opportunity to push a player who's been in the background. He could have turned cult right? Is anyone 100% clear? Honestly the lack of write ups is different and fun but I'm very much used to that style.

I am the same character as I've been this entire time and I'm 110% not in a cult.

 

[Matthieu]

Did you random too Grae?

No, though Jarrod's a good target. He's someone I'd expect to weigh in more and try to push for things to happen.

 

[Foxxi]

on n2 the n1 recruit becomes cult leader and can't do anything besides eradicate. nobody died n2, so they either chose not to act, were blocked by the butler's serve wine action or whiffed on the targets and hit death immune or protected roles. n3 is the earliest badger could have been converted. if he was converted n3, then this past night phase(n5) was a potential recruit night, and given no one died, that would be the likely scenario unless a block or total whiff occurred, which feels unlikely. if badge was converted n3, then at most we have a cult leader(n1 recruit) and a n5 recruit.

if the n3 recruit failed, that means badge was converted n4, the same night he was reaped by psycho, which left only the cult leader with no recruit charge for n5.

unless all actions immediately recharge upon a new leader being promoted, which then fucks everything up cause that means a recruit was possible on n2.

I don't think it would work that way? It would make it extra hard to actually weed out the cult, but I'm honestly not sure. Do new kings get new charges?

 

[Matthieu]

We need a name for 'player is quiet but almost immediately shows up after being mentioned'.

How about 'The Listo Effect'?

 

[Matthieu]

That being said, my vote can go anywhere. Same with my bleed. Convince me. Whisper me. Do something to help us break through this predicament since we absolutely need to pick correctly and eliminate a cult aligned player this day phase. The best scenario is that only one is around, the worst scenario is...we eliminate the wrong target and there's more than one.

 

[Foxxi]

I'm not sure if I agree with getting to it with rng... but jarrod is someone who is in my poe.

Poe is Val, grae, satsu and jarrod.

Of those I think val is less likely, satsu concerns me because the things he's said are easy to fake with the info the cult would have... but I am not sure badger is the sort to put his CL in his list. So between grae and jarrod - I will add pressure
Vote: Jarrod