Fingers of Suspicion

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Vanillatown 2: Revenge is a Dish Best Served Kosher (Mafia 3)

VoidKitten

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I'm comfortable with this read
I had his slot as town off of the vote progression yesterday since his slot tied the MTR and Caito wagons, putting Caito up for the lynch rand. There's almost no way scum makes that move when they can just be absent and let MTR flip.
I will put you higher on my list now for being the first person to actually say this.
 

MTR

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I am going to say that I do think much like Mazer has said that scum let town go after me since I have had a run of scum rands lately and I seem to be coming off scummy more than I used to.

So for now I have town reads on Windward, Mazer, Kareemah, and Void. I feel like I am leaving someone off this list though.

I am feeling scum vibes from claws but not completely convinced because I am worried I am showing bias.

Matthieu I could go scum on but he is still really up in the air for me like most others.
 

WindwardAway

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Hmm

Future
Val
Jarrod (altho hes rising up strong d1 lack of d2)
Mtr
Grae
Claws
I assume that's most to least likely scum
You think Val decided to make their scum partner Cairo a viable wagon for the heck of it?
 

Val the Moofia Boss

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I usually don't bother putting in much effort in my posts during the earlygame when we have no information, but given the nature of this game (no actions, only flips and we can only glean solid information from 2 scum flips before the game is over), and give that we saw 1 of the 2 concrete bits of information we are going to get from this game, I'll try.

My years of mafia experience have led me to believe that when it comes to trains on a scum, the most likely place scum are to be found are at the beginning of the train (throwing out votes on their teammtes when the chances of that teammate being lynched are slim), and at the end of the train (because of the pressure of looking like a lynching target the next day if someone flips red and they weren't on the lynch at all).

So I would be inclined to look at CWE or Satsu given their positions on the Caito train. Caito (scum) cast the first vote on CWE, which pushes CWE up as a player of interest.

(EDIT: CWE has died and flipped town, so nevermind).

It also reasonable to assume that scum would try to push an alternative lynch away from scum. The alternative lynch yesterday was MTR. Assuming MTR is town (given the unliklihood that both leading trains yesterday were on 2 out of the 3 scum playing), then I would be looking at Matthieu and Claws, since the middle voters are the most impactful in pushing a train.

This assumes that the entire playerbase was active on a Saturday afternoon, which is unlikely. Also, people don't care too much about D1 and are more likely to be absent. Still, this theory is better than nothing so I'll go with it.

So my vote targets are:

  • Satsu (replaced by VoidKitten)
  • Matthieu
  • Claws

So far Claws is the only one who has been getting votes, and we have a day left, so I'll push Void and see what happens.

Vote: Voidkitten
 

VoidKitten

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I usually don't bother putting in much effort in my posts during the earlygame when we have no information, but given the nature of this game (no actions, only flips and we can only glean solid information from 2 scum flips before the game is over), and give that we saw 1 of the 2 concrete bits of information we are going to get from this game, I'll try.

My years of mafia experience have led me to believe that when it comes to trains on a scum, the most likely place scum are to be found are at the beginning of the train (throwing out votes on their teammtes when the chances of that teammate being lynched are slim), and at the end of the train (because of the pressure of looking like a lynching target the next day if someone flips red and they weren't on the lynch at all).

So I would be inclined to look at CWE or Satsu given their positions on the Caito train. Caito (scum) cast the first vote on CWE, which pushes CWE up as a player of interest.

(EDIT: CWE has died and flipped town, so nevermind).

It also reasonable to assume that scum would try to push an alternative lynch away from scum. The alternative lynch yesterday was MTR. Assuming MTR is town (given the unliklihood that both leading trains yesterday were on 2 out of the 3 scum playing), then I would be looking at Matthieu and Claws, since the middle voters are the most impactful in pushing a train.

This assumes that the entire playerbase was active on a Saturday afternoon, which is unlikely. Also, people don't care too much about D1 and are more likely to be absent. Still, this theory is better than nothing so I'll go with it.

So my vote targets are:

  • Satsu (replaced by VoidKitten)
  • Matthieu
  • Claws

So far Claws is the only one who has been getting votes, and we have a day left, so I'll push Void and see what happens.

Vote: Voidkitten
Satsu voted a scum into a tie against MTR. The only way that works is if Caito and MTR were scum and my slot is the third scum.

I am clear because Satsu tied Caito and got him yeeted over MTR. Unless you think Satsu had some epic plan.
 

Matthieu

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Do you think that one of the scum is in the inactives? Or do you just want to eliminate one now while we 'can?'

A bit of both, really. We often find scum hiding amongst the quieter players in these games. Though there isn't really anything specific that strikes me as something worthy of doubling down on.
 

Val the Moofia Boss

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Yeah I was rereading my post and realized that the Caito train took off after MTR was already a train, so it wouldn't make sense for the MTR train to be a deflection away from Caito.
 

VoidKitten

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The way I see it right now with my notes on people. We either yeet Claws or yeet one of the inactives.

I dislike the inactive because it gives me less to go on. But I can see the value in clearing something we may not know anything about whereas people who post more can guide actions later based on their reactions.

We could also try and utilize the gun. If a majority of people think Claws is sus, we can either yeet Claws and see what happens and then use the gun on an inactive to try and clear the field? But voting an inactive and shooting Claws could do the same thing other than giving Claws a chance to talk his way out some more whereas an inactive won't.

I am leaning Claws. I'd take arguments on inactives and which and why? Because we need more than they just aren't here. Clearing Claws's alignment may shed some light on Jarrod and MTR even though I have feelings about both.
 

ForgottenHold

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While i am usually more vocal, i've been a little busy, between camping and working, Psycho even yelled at me, but freezing up because i'm scum? There are no roles to claim and i usually go through most of the game without claiming, it's a silly little argument
 

Claws

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I work a full time job and post fine i also spend weeks with both my kids your excuses are pretty invalid to me
 

ForgottenHold

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I work a full time job and post fine i also spend weeks with both my kids your excuses are pretty invalid to me
i think that's different, the jobs i tend to work are much more hands-on, plus the fact that I had no service during the campout didn't help, or I would've posted more, you seem to be really gunning for me though
 

Claws

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Its cool lynch me wind is clearly tunneled and every1 else isnt paying attention enough to not pile on the only train
 

Claws

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i think that's different, the jobs i tend to work are much more hands-on, plus the fact that I had no service during the campout didn't help, or I would've posted more, you seem to be really gunning for me though
Im a welder fitter idk if you can get more hands on then that
 

ForgottenHold

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if MTR is scum after I jokingly voted him d1, that would be funny, especially because he was going to kill me again this game if he was scum
 

WindwardAway

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I am town reading the hell out of that post though at first read.
Same
Minus the conclusion drawn on your slot cause of the tie, I think everything else I agree with.
And if it hadn't been tied wagons and Caito had already had majority on him, then honestly Val's post would've been perfectly fine imo.
But yeah, I already thought Val was likely town because they placed their vote on Caito to secure that he would actually be a viable wagon (something that Claws seemed to disagree with).
 

WindwardAway

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The way I see it right now with my notes on people. We either yeet Claws or yeet one of the inactives.

I dislike the inactive because it gives me less to go on. But I can see the value in clearing something we may not know anything about whereas people who post more can guide actions later based on their reactions.

We could also try and utilize the gun. If a majority of people think Claws is sus, we can either yeet Claws and see what happens and then use the gun on an inactive to try and clear the field? But voting an inactive and shooting Claws could do the same thing other than giving Claws a chance to talk his way out some more whereas an inactive won't.

I am leaning Claws. I'd take arguments on inactives and which and why? Because we need more than they just aren't here. Clearing Claws's alignment may shed some light on Jarrod and MTR even though I have feelings about both.
I'd rather vote out Claws and use the gun on an inactive, if we're going that way, because the desperado gun will potentially clear someone's alignment and we'd still have part of the day to solve after that, if I understood correctly on how it works.
I mean, yeah, if we used the gun on claws it would also reveal his alignment, but then we get less info out of an inactive today imo since it's possible that some people will be more active if they don't want that gun pointed at them.
 

Claws

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I think this is the dumbest plan im gunna flip town and your gunna shoot another town
 

WindwardAway

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I actually feel somewhat less inclined to scumread Matthieu than I did earlier cause I think his later posts held up reasonably well.
 

VoidKitten

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Why's that? Matthieu's defense of Claws?
Matthieu offering himself instead of Claws yes. I can see doing that if they were scum buddies, but its a meta read on Matthieu right now. I don't see him offering that as scum. Especially if he flipped, it would throw shade on Claws.
 

WindwardAway

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I think this is the dumbest plan im gunna flip town and your gunna shoot another town
That's entirely possible but nobody said we absolutely had to shoot an inactive. Chances are we'd have better info by then because we'll have another flip to work with.
 

Claws

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That's entirely possible but nobody said we absolutely had to shoot an inactive. Chances are we'd have better info by then because we'll have another flip to work with.
If your gunna just tunnel me out i hope som1 gets the balls to shoot you signed town claws
 

VoidKitten

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I dont care im already gunna be dead
You wouldn't be dead with your proposition. If you had the choice, who would you choose for yeet today and then shoot tomorrow. You said this plan will kill two townies. So are you trying to say the inactives are townies?
 

Claws

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I tryed being more helpful but you guys clearly dont wanna look at others its claws claws claws what a agenda
 

VoidKitten

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Claws, you might be town. But that gives us information on at least two possibly three others. Definitely 3 others.

I don't see how yeeting anyone else gives us that potential information.
 

Claws

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Claws, you might be town. But that gives us information on at least two possibly three others. Definitely 3 others.

I don't see how yeeting anyone else gives us that potential information.
Nah you and wind are pushing a hard agenda
 

Claws

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Id vote you and shoot wind how convient for him to not be around but then be around right as day restarts an hr later and why sub satsu if he wasnt a scum
 

WindwardAway

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If your gunna just tunnel me out i hope som1 gets the balls to shoot you signed town claws
Last time I got hero shot it was a townie tunnelling me and I knew he'd shoot me
I told the thread to not vote him out if he shot me and ofc he shot me and they all went after him
But he had this really stupid town tell where he always tunnelled me as town and never as scum, so lmao...
 

WindwardAway

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I tryed being more helpful but you guys clearly dont wanna look at others its claws claws claws what a agenda
Bro you don't even scumread me.
You've been saying I'm tunnelling you. Town tunnels, wolves agenda push.
I find it weird that you want someone to shoot me out of spite.
 

Claws

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Surprised Meme GIF
 

WindwardAway

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Kinda like what your doing to me right now
You couldn't even get the color of the town rolecard correctly and you had the scummiest D1 out of anyone by far. What do you want me to do, townread you out of pity?
 

Jarrod1983

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I do honestly think that color thing was just a innocent goof. Town has been shaded blue recently.
 

WindwardAway

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Actually now that I think about it, shooting me tomorrow is probably better than shooting a lowposter
I'm not entirely opposed to that
 

VoidKitten

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But thank fuck at least Claws is fighting back. It gives way more to work with.

@Claws, you can keep voting Windward, but if you are town you know I am clear. There is no way Satsu would put a vote to rand unless both MTR and Caito were scum. And again, that would mean I am scum and Windward could not be.

Windward and I both cannot be scum.

So lets say we yeet Windward today. Who would you want to shoot tomorrow assuming Windward flips town?
 

WindwardAway

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I don't think Claws is scum because of him not knowing the color. I'm the one who defended him on that one.
Yeah the thing is, last time I called someone out on not knowing the color of their card, they got salty and everyone jumped on me, and they were, in fact, not town (they were neutral, so not scum either, but point is it was an actual slip).
 

WindwardAway

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But thank fuck at least Claws is fighting back. It gives way more to work with.

@Claws, you can keep voting Windward, but if you are town you know I am clear. There is no way Satsu would put a vote to rand unless both MTR and Caito were scum. And again, that would mean I am scum and Windward could not be.

Windward and I both cannot be scum.

So lets say we yeet Windward today. Who would you want to shoot tomorrow assuming Windward flips town?
Honestly I don't mind, interactions give me more to work with
I think the self-vote isn't really necessary but idk I'm the one scumreading him so whatever, I'm still fine with flipping him today.
 

WindwardAway

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But thank fuck at least Claws is fighting back. It gives way more to work with.

@Claws, you can keep voting Windward, but if you are town you know I am clear. There is no way Satsu would put a vote to rand unless both MTR and Caito were scum. And again, that would mean I am scum and Windward could not be.

Windward and I both cannot be scum.

So lets say we yeet Windward today. Who would you want to shoot tomorrow assuming Windward flips town?
Wait, actually... Why can't we both be scum? Or do you mean specifically if MTR is scum?
 

VoidKitten

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Wait, actually... Why can't we both be scum? Or do you mean specifically if MTR is scum?
If I were scum (my slot so Satsu), the only reason I would come back and vote Caito would be if both Caito and MTR were scum. Otherwise I would vote MTR to save Caito. That would be me, Caito, and MTR as the scum.

Otherwise, I am town. There is no sane world where you and I are both on the same scum team with 3 players and the D1 end vote.
 

WindwardAway

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If I were scum (my slot so Satsu), the only reason I would come back and vote Caito would be if both Caito and MTR were scum. Otherwise I would vote MTR to save Caito. That would be me, Caito, and MTR as the scum.

Otherwise, I am town. There is no sane world where you and I are both on the same scum team with 3 players and the D1 end vote.
Ah ok, yeah that tracks.

Im thinking about what we said earlier about Claws and Matthieu being unlikely partners.
If Claws flips town, does Matthieu's scum equity go up, or is that still a read that he would have accurate as town?
 

VoidKitten

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Ah ok, yeah that tracks.

Im thinking about what we said earlier about Claws and Matthieu being unlikely partners.
If Claws flips town, does Matthieu's scum equity go up, or is that still a read that he would have accurate as town?
If Claws flips town, I have others I would look at before Matthieu most likely. But I would look at Matthieu's timings on posts and see how the conversation went.

Claws offered to be yeeted to clear the field and now clearly doesn't want that to happen. Usually its a scum tell, but I won't lie. I've done it as town. It sucks to die.

Matthieu also offered to be the yeet instead of Claws because he firmly believes Claws is town. Does a scum do that? Maybe only if he didn't really think we would take him up on that. If we did, he would flip red and we would have to assume he was protecting Claws. Sure it could be a misyeet, but we clearly have enough to not worry about it at that point.

So, without looking at more specifics I don't think it would necessarily raise it unless we think Matthieu did it for the cred knowing no one would yeet him. But that's ballsy.
 

PsychoSoldier

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Vote Count
4 - Claws (WindwardAway, VoidKitten, Kareemah, Claws)
1 - Kareemah (Matthieu)
1 - VoidKitten (Val the Moofia Boss)

Not Voting: Jarrod1983, Mazer, FutureHold, MTR, Peter Griffin, LemonDemonGirl

24 hours remain, but don't forget to get votes in.
 

VoidKitten

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Unvote:

Agenda agenda agenda
We have 24 hours. I am willing to work with you. But you need to cut out the agenda talk at least in relation to me because you know its not possible for me to be scum.

I am willing to entertain Windward. I have my own notes and would like to see yours. Why do you think Windward is pushing you? If it is an agenda, what is it accomplishing and who do you think the partner is that would want to push it?
 

VoidKitten

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Because Windward doesn't know you. So there has to be a game reason why you'd be pushed. Now there are things I can see as possible reasons, but I'd like your thoughts on where you feel its coming from? Easy yeet? Getting rid of a strong voice? What?
 

PsychoSoldier

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3 - Claws (WindwardAway, VoidKitten, Kareemah)
1 - Kareemah (Matthieu)
1 - VoidKitten (Val the Moofia Boss)

Not Voting: Jarrod1983, Mazer, FutureHold, MTR, Peter Griffin, LemonDemonGirl, Claws
 

Claws

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Vote: void
Because Windward doesn't know you. So there has to be a game reason why you'd be pushed. Now there are things I can see as possible reasons, but I'd like your thoughts on where you feel its coming from? Easy yeet? Getting rid of a strong voice? What?
Easy yeet ive obviously made easy pushable mistakes
 

Claws

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Sitting currently in neut as they havent done anything except sheep vote me
 

VoidKitten

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I'd rather your vote on me than yourself.

Is it the mistake about blue/green thats bothering you with Windward? Why does Windward bother you more than Kareemah since Kareemah said it bluntly while Windward danced around it and all of its metagamey gloriousness.
 

WindwardAway

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Sitting currently in neut as they havent done anything except sheep vote me
They did give a reason, though. They also thought the rolecard color thing was a slip. You think they were sheeping me on it?
 

Claws

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I'd rather your vote on me than yourself.

Is it the mistake about blue/green thats bothering you with Windward? Why does Windward bother you more than Kareemah since Kareemah said it bluntly while Windward danced around it and all of its metagamey gloriousness.
Its the fact hes tunneled on me instead of actually lookin at others its just me and who to look at after me

Karee is new and has no presence she came in skimmed thread saw votes on me and boom here we are
 

Claws

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Pretty easy to read my mistake and agree with others be more interesting if she pointed it out herself orginally
 

WindwardAway

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Its the fact hes tunneled on me instead of actually lookin at others its just me and who to look at after me

Karee is new and has no presence she came in skimmed thread saw votes on me and boom here we are
I do, in fact, have scenarios lined up for if you're town and I'm wrong.
At this point, however, I do not have a scenario lined up for what happens next if you flip scum, and that has indeed been something I've thought about, but no way did I plan on saying this in the thread because it lowers the credibility in my reads when I go all hedgy. I'm never 100% confident in a read as town except in non-bastard games with hard mechanical evidence. And this game doesn't have any mechanical evidence, other than the desperado on D3.
But I'm telling you this so you get your facts straight. Kareemah did not just vote you because they saw votes on you, and I am not refusing to look at other slots.
 

WindwardAway

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Pretty easy to read my mistake and agree with others be more interesting if she pointed it out herself orginally
I can agree with that but then why did you say you don't you have any sort of read on her? It sounds like you do.
 

WindwardAway

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Unvote:

You know what I realized the issue with my reads is? Because I'm not looking at any of the inactives.
Of all the active players, every single one of them has at least something in their favor (yes, even Claws), and in comparison the lowposters have way too little to read them off. And I don't want to do an apathy vote where I just vote on an inactive slot just because they exist and everyone else is townier. I prefer voting people with a higher number of posts but content that I think is scummy. But it really is limiting my options here and I admit that might be why I'm so fixated on Claws, because he has some of the scummiest posts of the active posters, but there are a few things he's said that I think are insightful.
 

WindwardAway

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Unvote:

You know what I realized the issue with my reads is? Because I'm not looking at any of the inactives.
Of all the active players, every single one of them has at least something in their favor (yes, even Claws), and in comparison the lowposters have way too little to read them off. And I don't want to do an apathy vote where I just vote on an inactive slot just because they exist and everyone else is townier. I prefer voting people with a higher number of posts but content that I think is scummy. But it really is limiting my options here and I admit that might be why I'm so fixated on Claws, because he has some of the scummiest posts of the active posters, but there are a few things he's said that I think are insightful.
Unvote: Claws

Not sure if that actually counted lol
 
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