I usually don't bother putting in much effort in my posts during the earlygame when we have no information, but given the nature of this game (no actions, only flips and we can only glean solid information from 2 scum flips before the game is over), and give that we saw 1 of the 2 concrete bits of information we are going to get from this game, I'll try.
My years of mafia experience have led me to believe that when it comes to trains on a scum, the most likely place scum are to be found are at the beginning of the train (throwing out votes on their teammtes when the chances of that teammate being lynched are slim), and at the end of the train (because of the pressure of looking like a lynching target the next day if someone flips red and they weren't on the lynch at all).
So I would be inclined to look at CWE or Satsu given their positions on the Caito train. Caito (scum) cast the first vote on CWE, which pushes CWE up as a player of interest.
(EDIT: CWE has died and flipped town, so nevermind).
It also reasonable to assume that scum would try to push an alternative lynch away from scum. The alternative lynch yesterday was MTR. Assuming MTR is town (given the unliklihood that both leading trains yesterday were on 2 out of the 3 scum playing), then I would be looking at Matthieu and Claws, since the middle voters are the most impactful in pushing a train.
This assumes that the entire playerbase was active on a Saturday afternoon, which is unlikely. Also, people don't care too much about D1 and are more likely to be absent. Still, this theory is better than nothing so I'll go with it.
So my vote targets are:
- Satsu (replaced by VoidKitten)
- Matthieu
- Claws
So far Claws is the only one who has been getting votes, and we have a day left, so I'll push Void and see what happens.
Vote: Voidkitten