Fingers of Suspicion

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kiss mafia

3puppies

Lost Wolf
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No response from Psycho other than posting unrelated rappy hip hop jibberish linx.

Pscyho, I read this as you know you've been caught. Just vote yourself.
 

Listo95

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My reasoning for feeling a little better about diva than claws was the diva vote on FH, besides that both have meh votes.
 

Listo95

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Indie Goose Game GIF
 

Mazer

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My reasoning for feeling a little better about diva than claws was the diva vote on FH, besides that both have meh votes.
Well, we definitely disagree on who was most positively influential in that voting.
 

Mazer

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I was thinking about this as well. If we are to presume scum needed to shoot Dreyski before his traitor-ability kicked in, then that would mean the scum team was pretty light to start the game, with only ForgottenHold and whoever shot MTR last night. The roadblock is apparently off the table if I was jailed. But why would a town jail their cop in a simple game? It prevents town from learning anything.

Diva, I noticed you are now claiming a vanilla town role - highlighted above. I agree with your thoughts above, but I also wonder why a simple game didn't have a doc role? If there was a doc, wouldn't CWE have seen them visit me?

For my benefit, I am trying to understand the difference between a watcher and a tracker. We lost our watcher on N1, and CWE claimed the tracker. CWE - did you track me, or did you track psycho? A tracker tells who the person tracked went to visit at night. A watcher tells who came to visit the person watched. Do I have this right? Since psycho was seen coming to visit me, and psycho claimed he jailed me, the issue is whether it is believable that our mod would set up a simple game with this many powers for town. Would a simple game of this size give town both a watcher and a tracker, as well as a 4-power JOAT?

In order to balance things a little, scum was given a potential distraction with LDG being a miller, and Dreyski being a traitor. But scum didn't know they were out there. I am more convinced now that there has to be at least a GF among the scum, and there is probably another person besides whoever shot MTR.

I also come back to my question about whether Dreyski's BPV implies that someone in town has a gun? If so, for balance sake, wouldn't that mean the existing of a 4x powered JOAT is that much more unlikely?

CWE, did you track someone else on N1 or N2? Now that you've shared something - which happens to come at a convenient time for you to save yourself from the suspicion we were throwing at you - can you amplify your thoughts a bit?

Diva - can you explain why you think MTR was not protecting me? If he was bodyguard, and took a bullet for me, I am in his debt. And next game, I will allow him to use my D1 vote. As town, wouldn't the BG want to protect either the cop or the doc? Since a doc hasn't claimed yet, it seems that it'd either be me he'd protect, or he'd holster. But I don't understand a holster if he had a chance to protect a more important town role.

Now, for Listo's vote analysis list. I appreciate the work in putting that out there for us, but I don't think it really clears Listo at all. For now, I will stick with my vote on psycho. If psycho flips green, CWE is back on the top sus list for me, and Listo is still right there.
Are we surprised there's not a doc, if we assume scum only had 3 before a potential traitor flip. Utilizing a bodyguard instead sounds like good balance to me.
 

rock meets hard place

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PsychoSoldier(3)- Mazer, 3puppies, Claws
Listo95(1)-PsychoSoldier


not voting: Listo95, DivaSmurf, Blind Ninja, Val the Moofia Boss, CWE

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch or no lynch
 

DivaSmurf

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Diva - can you explain why you think MTR was not protecting me? If he was bodyguard, and took a bullet for me, I am in his debt. And next game, I will allow him to use my D1 vote. As town, wouldn't the BG want to protect either the cop or the doc? Since a doc hasn't claimed yet, it seems that it'd either be me he'd protect, or he'd holster. But I don't understand a holster if he had a chance to protect a more important town role.
Currently at work skimming(not fully caught up) but to answer this really fast:
My understanding of bodyguard role (based on https://sc2mafia.com/wiki/Bodyguard ) is that if scum would have targeted the person being guarded then both the shooter and guard would have died, in this case only the guard died, leading me to believe MTR was the intended target.

Side note: will fully catch up when I get home but first I gotta finish paperwork at work
 

Mazer

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Some thoughts:

Psych has the easiest claim to make. I think even he would acknowledge that. It's possible that he's not, but it is not where I see the best odds. I've already said why I don't like the holster argument. It's always possible that he factored this game different than how I expected or maybe even how he normally would. But again, doesn't seem the most probable to me.

A few people have speculated on mtr's play, and whether there is deeper meaning. I can tell you, I wouldn't have expected different, if scum has an rb. As soon as 3 pups outed himself on the mtr clear, foxxi, blind ninja, and I discussed that the obvious play was that scum would now try to block him and hope the doc stayed there.

As soon as the claim happened and even moreso after Future flipped-We also fully expected one of us to die next. Foxxi being the most obvious choice. That's why she got all her reads out for us to copy.

I did ask myself if there could be a plot with cwe. I tried to tinfoil, and anything is possible. But it seems unlikely. His biggest truth tell indicator is he actually said Listo was at the top of his scum list. Which of course, has to be word for word true.

I still read claws town.

Listo's vote analysis wasn't bad. If Psycho beats the odds, and was clean, and Listo is dirty, I would heavily re-evaluate my read on diva and wonder about him.
 

Mazer

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Val, how do you feel about cwe's comments regarding your inactivity.
 

Mazer

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Currently at work skimming(not fully caught up) but to answer this really fast:
My understanding of bodyguard role (based on https://sc2mafia.com/wiki/Bodyguard ) is that if scum would have targeted the person being guarded then both the shooter and guard would have died, in this case only the guard died, leading me to believe MTR was the intended target.

Side note: will fully catch up when I get home but first I gotta finish paperwork at work

Think you may have misread. If they target mtr, the attacker usually dies. I would guess that since that didn't happen, that mtr was not protecting himself.
 

Val the Moofia Boss

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Val, how do you feel about cwe's comments regarding your inactivity.

I'm a VT, there's nothing to say.

I just drove 45 minutes to work, waited around for hour and then got told that nah, there is no work for you today, go home. Lmao. I might be able to write more in an hour, but again not much to say.

Vote: Psycho
 

Val the Moofia Boss

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It is possible that Psycho is who he claims he is, but I'd be afraid that he isn't and he could weasel out of this and make it to the end without further scrutiny.
 

3puppies

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Some thoughts:

Psych has the easiest claim to make. I think even he would acknowledge that. It's possible that he's not, but it is not where I see the best odds. I've already said why I don't like the holster argument. It's always possible that he factored this game different than how I expected or maybe even how he normally would. But again, doesn't seem the most probable to me.

A few people have speculated on mtr's play, and whether there is deeper meaning. I can tell you, I wouldn't have expected different, if scum has an rb. As soon as 3 pups outed himself on the mtr clear, foxxi, blind ninja, and I discussed that the obvious play was that scum would now try to block him and hope the doc stayed there.

I expected to be killed or blocked on N2 after I came out claiming and clearing MTR. Do you think that the discussion you had in the neighborhood, with ForgottenFuture reporting back to scum, made them alter the obvious action? Even so, why would they not role block the cop N2 if they could?


...

I did ask myself if there could be a plot with cwe. I tried to tinfoil, and anything is possible. But it seems unlikely. His biggest truth tell indicator is he actually said Listo was at the top of his scum list. Which of course, has to be word for word true.

I still read claws town.

Listo's vote analysis wasn't bad. If Psycho beats the odds, and was clean, and Listo is dirty, I would heavily re-evaluate my read on diva and wonder about him.

I think we're on the same page. So if Psycho flips green, you will be ready to check Listo next, then Diva. Or Diva before Listo?
I agree that Listo's vote analysis wasn't bad, but it came well after many of us have formed our opinions. There's something about it that felt just enough to postpone more poking at Listo, and keep the attention on what already is a given that Psycho is today's target.

I also worry about psycho having a 1x iron collar or a no-kill, because of balance.

Diva's role analysis stuff feels like genuine solving attempts to me.
 

Mazer

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I expected to be killed or blocked on N2 after I came out claiming and clearing MTR. Do you think that the discussion you had in the neighborhood, with ForgottenFuture reporting back to scum, made them alter the obvious action? Even so, why would they not role block the cop N2 if they could?




I think we're on the same page. So if Psycho flips green, you will be ready to check Listo next, then Diva. Or Diva before Listo?
I agree that Listo's vote analysis wasn't bad, but it came well after many of us have formed our opinions. There's something about it that felt just enough to postpone more poking at Listo, and keep the attention on what already is a given that Psycho is today's target.

I also worry about psycho having a 1x iron collar or a no-kill, because of balance.

Diva's role analysis stuff feels like genuine solving attempts to me.
I think the tactic would have been obvious to any scum as soon as the claim happened. I can't ever remember playing scum in an putted cop scenario where the strategy was not pretty apparent. Particularly when they took out satsu. Assuming at least one veteran seems safe.

But you never know how someone might play, i guess. I have a lot of questions about people's choices in general. N2 could have been a myriad of reasons. They could have been worried about the tracker. Your poe may not have been worrisome to them. There could have been other effects. Difficult to say confidently.

We do agree. Barring more info, listo currently sits next highest on my POE.
 

Claws

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Id be pickin any vts or possibly sum1 that didnt claim if i were the copper at this point
 

Blind Ninja

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I gave some time, but not sure I want to give people time to change heart and back off Psycho.

Vote: Psycho

Still think its one of our strongest reads overall as a grp
 

Foxxi

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You were so full of shit, tryin' to prove that you fit.

I'll admit you gave it your best....

But now it's time to give it a rest.



Psycho has been yate. He was a mafia joat.

Ya got 24 hours or something to give Rock your actions.... go!
 

rock meets hard place

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CWE has died. He was a town tracker.

not voting: Listo95, DivaSmurf, Blind Ninja, Val the Moofia Boss, Mazer, 3puppies, Claws

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or no lynch

Your 72 hours starts now.
 

Blind Ninja

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Tracker being killer makes me feel there is 100% a GF with investigation immunity.

That said, we need to look at our reads and interactions and less at cop results.

I'd like everyone to list their POE.
 

Mazer

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If 3 pups got another ckesn result, gf probability is definitely up.

I reread all of psych's post last night.

short of dees, I would like to hear from everyone, but most particularly Diva, listo, and Val.
 

DivaSmurf

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Listo was already top of my POE.
Looking back over CWE and 3pups posts last phase, CWE mentioned Listo at top of his scum list, and pups was giving indication to cop Listo. If Listo is scum and a gf then it absolutely makes sense he would kill CWE over pups because the track would mess up the cop clear.
 

Val the Moofia Boss

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Since one of the scum had a BPV, we can assume that there is a vigi out there with a kill, right? Seems like it would be very risky to use that kill now that we are on track for a safe 1v2

7 alive, 1 scum
lynch 1
1 person nked
5 alive, 1 scum
lynch 1
1 person NKed
3 alive, 1 scum
At this point, the two living town players have the highest chance of successfully picking and lynching the last scum.

If a vigi uses their shot before this, then the final day will be 3 town vs 1 scum, statistically less likely to hit (25%) than 2 vs 1 (33%)
 

Blind Ninja

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Since one of the scum had a BPV, we can assume that there is a vigi out there with a kill, right? Seems like it would be very risky to use that kill now that we are on track for a safe 1v2

7 alive, 1 scum
lynch 1
1 person nked
5 alive, 1 scum
lynch 1
1 person NKed
3 alive, 1 scum
At this point, the two living town players have the highest chance of successfully picking and lynching the last scum.

If a vigi uses their shot before this, then the final day will be 3 town vs 1 scum, statistically less likely to hit (25%) than 2 vs 1 (33%)
Aside from these numbers...

Who do you feel is the most likely final scum?
 

Claws

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If 3 pups got another ckesn result, gf probability is definitely up.

I reread all of psych's post last night.

short of dees, I would like to hear from everyone, but most particularly Diva, listo, and Val.
Burn all 3 of them will sort out the list
 

Val the Moofia Boss

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Aside from these numbers...

Who do you feel is the most likely final scum?

idk probably not 3puppies. I don't think he's been confirmed by anyone else? Wouldn't be the first time a scum bussed every one of his teammates and people blindly trusted him until the end, but he's most likely the cop
 

Blind Ninja

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idk probably not 3puppies. I don't think he's been confirmed by anyone else? Wouldn't be the first time a scum bussed every one of his teammates and people blindly trusted him until the end, but he's most likely the cop
Asked who you thought was scum, not who isnt...

Who are in your POE?
 

3puppies

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LemonDemonGirl(8)-Dreyski, Nightingale, Satsu, LemonDemonGirl, Blind Ninja, Claws, MTR, Mazer
Satsu(2)-PsychoSoldier, Val the Moofia Boss
No Lynch(2)-3puppies, DivaSmurf
Val the Moofia Boss(1)-ForgottenHold
DivaSmurf(1)-CWE
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
ForgottenHold(7)-Nightingale, Mazer, Blind Ninja, MTR, DivaSmurf, Claws, PsychoSoldier
Mazer(1)-3puppies
Dreyski(1)-Val the Moofia Boss
PsychoSoldier(1)-CWE
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Dreyski(6)-PsychoSoldier, MTR, 3puppies, Blind Ninja, Claws, Mazer
CWE(1)-Dreyski
Claws(1)-Val the Moofia Boss
listo95(1)-CWE

not voting: Listo95, DivaSmurf


--------------------------------------------------------
PsychoSoldier(5)- Mazer, 3puppies, Claws, Val, Blind
Listo95(1)-PsychoSoldier


not voting: Listo95, DivaSmurf, CWE


Sad to inform everyone that I simply have no result this round. I now think psycho quite possibly was in fact trying to jail me after all, but doing so as scum. It would explain why he was seen by CWE. I needed another night off.

Listo95 has not voted the entire game. DivaSmurf only voted once with conviction, and that was on ForgottenFuture, but it was after the neighborhood had fingered him - so ForgottenFuture was quite likely telling his team mates to stay away or to jump on and buy themselves cover. Psycho clearly listened.

I still feel that Mazer and BN are solid town, because of how they nailed ForgottenFuture . Claws also feels towny, mostly because of FoxxiNightengale's strong read. Foxxi seems to be able to read Claws very well.

That leaves me with Listo, Diva and Val (who I cleared, but may be a GF). Val hasn't done much to make me feel anything either way. His last post, quite softly putting sus on me while suggesting I am probably the cop, feels like he's trying to lay groundwork for later game voting.

I did like Diva's role analysis earlier.

Not sure what to make about psycho voting Listo - several of us suspected Listo for the non-activity, so was this an attempt to save himself by trying to encourage a misyeet? CWE also said Listo was at the top of his sus list.

Since late game stuff often comes down to vote analysis, staying off of votes altogether just pings me the wrong way.

Vote: Listo95
 

Claws

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i mean not to defend him but he came mid game and hes been catching up and working i dont think not voting really matters as much as contributing he gave us the vote analysis your basing this off of anyways so kinda ironic
 

Blind Ninja

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i mean not to defend him but he came mid game and hes been catching up and working i dont think not voting really matters as much as contributing he gave us the vote analysis your basing this off of anyways so kinda ironic
But did the vote analysis really give us anything that we didnt already see and comment on?
 

3puppies

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But did the vote analysis really give us anything that we didnt already see and comment on?
This.

He gave us something we already knew and discussed, when it was clear many of us suspected psycho, and what he gave us, he didn't even follow with a vote.
 

rock meets hard place

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Listo95(2)-DivaSmurf, 3puppies

not voting: Listo95, Blind Ninja, Val the Moofia Boss, Mazer, Claws

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or no lynch
 

Claws

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This.

He gave us something we already knew and discussed, when it was clear many of us suspected psycho, and what he gave us, he didn't even follow with a vote.
Same can be said with diva aswell with the abuility chart it was syill info we could get ourselfs or was known
 

3puppies

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Same can be said with diva aswell with the abuility chart it was syill info we could get ourselfs or was known

I agree with you about this. I don't have them very far apart on my suspect list. Diva coming out first with his vote felt more legit to me, as I would think scum would be willing to see direction someone else is pointing, and follow along. I could be wrong.

I wanted to comment on Val's post above about holding off on the vig kill.

If someone has a vig kill, should they take out Listo or Diva now? If we hit scum, it's likely game over. If not, we still have time to vote the other before day ends.

Should we worry about the possibility of there being more than one traitor?
 

Mazer

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I felt some Diva's interactions felt more organic. But he was among the few people Psych soft defended consistently. Other people, Psych was a bit more off and on. Psych is too good to overdefend, but there was a thread.
 

Mazer

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If I had kill, I would definitely take one of those two out.

I'm not sure that its definite though. Blind and I were talking through this earlier. We could see the 1x as simply being the traitor recruiter mechanic.
 

3puppies

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I pointed out I needed another night off. I did not / could not target anyone again. The cop is limited.

I didn't want to explain that yesterday because I wanted scum to think I could act.

Psycho may have been legit when he said he jailed me, but it wouldn't have mattered since I couldn't act then. So scum may have wasted that role, and CWE caught him in the process.
 

Mazer

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I read the needed another night off different. Thanks for clarifying.

My guess is Psych just roleblocked. He can't say roleblocked or we'd know. But that's probably not particularly worrisome either way for me.
 

3puppies

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Well, he was seen visiting me by CWE, and I didn't have any action. The way I intentionally described it, even before CWE reported, I was hoping scum wouldn't think about any limits on the cop, figuring when they do kill me, I know I will have done my best for town.
 

Mazer

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That's mostly in jest.

My top 2 are diva and listo.

Val is currently after them. His best bet is he was cleared. His worst is probably the quick psych vote mirrors for someone who votes random.

Hopefully it doesn't take this long. I'm willing to wait for listo, within reason.
 

Val the Moofia Boss

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I think it is less likely that you and 3puppies are scum than the others. Everyone else has an equal chance. I know Diva's name has come up lately as a lynch target but I don't see Diva being any more or less likely to be scum than everyone else.
 

Blind Ninja

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I think it is less likely that you and 3puppies are scum than the others. Everyone else has an equal chance. I know Diva's name has come up lately as a lynch target but I don't see Diva being any more or less likely to be scum than everyone else.
Then why wouldnt you vote on someone you think is likely to be scum, instead of Mazer, who is in the neighborhood with me. This random vote on d4 just feels lazy
 

Val the Moofia Boss

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On a serious note:

not voting: Listo95, DivaSmurf, PsychoSoldier, 3puppies, Blind Ninja, Claws, Mazer, Val the Moofia Boss, CWE

Mazer and Blind Ninja were in the neighborhood with the scum who died earlier, seems unlikely there were two scum in a neighborhood.
3puppies claimed cop, is probably the cop.
I'm not going to vote for myself.
My contrarianism makes me disinclined to vote Diva at this moment.
With Graeham gone, Listo is my next friend to feel sympathetic towards and disinclined to vote without evidence pointing his way.

So that leaves Claws and CWE. I guess CWE is honorable and was pressured earlier to say if he was town and didn't do so, so I feel honorbound to return the favor and look the other way for the time being. So that leaves Claws.
 

Claws

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So you are gunna vote me because you dont want to vote diva/listo out of sympathy
 

3puppies

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I think it is less likely that you and 3puppies are scum than the others. Everyone else has an equal chance. I know Diva's name has come up lately as a lynch target but I don't see Diva being any more or less likely to be scum than everyone else.


Val, I understand not voting yourself. Besides, I cleared you, so unless you are GF, you're safe for a while.

The reason I have Diva as potential scum is the same as Listo - they haven't been cleared, and have claimed Vanilla Town. Vote history may be legit, but could be looked at as consistent with someone hiding.

I could put Claws in there with them for the same reasons, except Claws was "read" by Foxxi Nightengale, who has played more than enough games with Claws to notice up a few tells. Even in a game before I started playing, I was invited to dead chat and Foxxi had been taken out early. I am only starting to notice a few things about different players and how they respond to poking, and some people do play very differently as scum vs town.

I also wonder if Claws is a doc and has been protecting me. I continue to wonder why I survive.

BN and Mazer both confirmed that Foxxi had read Claws as strong town in their neighborhood chat. I can imagine what Foxxi is saying in dead chat at the moment seeing this get ignored by you.

Plus, CWE was killed last night, and flipped green. CWE was a town tracker, and he followed psycho and caught him visiting me. I always wonder about a scum team having something that could result in them getting a double kill. But anyway, CWE said Listo was top of his sus list before he was taken out. That has to count for something.

It is not definitive by any means, but I think Listo or Diva is our best chance at the moment. If I am wrong, and I don't survive the night, please look at the other.

The longer we don't hear from Listo, the stronger my feelings become.
 

Blind Ninja

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Only reason I havent voted listo yet is to give him a chance to speak. Needless to say, the longer he takes, the less inclined ill be to wait. Especially if he comes in with "ill talk tomorrow after work" or something of the sort.
 

Listo95

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Only reason I havent voted listo yet is to give him a chance to speak. Needless to say, the longer he takes, the less inclined ill be to wait. Especially if he comes in with "ill talk tomorrow after work" or something of the sort.
I honestly expected to be voted off within the 1st few hours of day so... I wasn't even prepared :D
 

Mazer

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I think there's fairly close odds between Listo and Diva. Diva gives us more data, so there's always a chance I'm turning that into a Rohrschach test. It's probably time to move on.

I absolutely trust Blind Ninja at this point. He's been in on Future, Dreyski, and Psych. I am as close to 100 as it's possible that I am not being fooled by him.

I also completely tip my hat if claws has fooled me. Scum trying to start gently shading him over his future vote, when he was probably the tipping point, strikes me wrong.

3puppies has not been counterclaimed as a cop.

Val seems Valish. I guess he could always be faking, and hoping for derp clears. I mean, we've done it before, so I'm always watching for the fake possibility.
 

rock meets hard place

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day 4 final vote count

Listo95(2)-DivaSmurf, 3puppies, Claws, Mazer, Blind Ninja
DivaSmurf(1)-Val the Moofia Boss

not voting: Listo95

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or no lynch

Listo95 has been lynched. He was a goon.

Congratulations to the town for their victory in KISS mafia.
 

rock meets hard place

Kitten Herder
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Mar 22, 2023
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Well.... that's not exactly how I planned things. I think this was relatively balanced though in hindsight I could have done a few things differently, most notably getting rid of the watcher and/or giving the mafia ninja shots. There's a part of me that thinks the hood didn't fit as well in the 15 player as opposed to the 17 player version I first envisioned. Diva had correctly called out what I was doing by doing 3vts + 3 neighbors. I think town mostly won by solving the hood early and getting rid of the red herring. It also helps that scum were mostly inactive though big shout out to psycho for sticking in there for a while and Listo replacing in.

I hope you guys had a little fun and enjoyed trying something a little bit different. I might have more to say later.
 

MTR

Vigilante
Joined
Jan 8, 2023
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1,194
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library
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Thanks for the game. I enjoyed it. Overall I think it went well. I think everyone always finds a couple things they wish they would have tweaked. That is the way it goes.

Diva and 3pups played great games that helped town a lot and also the solving of the scum in the hood was a big help.
 

Mazer

Spirit Breaker
Joined
Jan 9, 2023
Messages
2,068
Thanks for the game, Rock. It was a fun change, and I enjoyed the neighborhood a lot.

The neighborhood was fun. Enjoyed working through the list with Blind and Night. We were pretty well calibrated early and it made for a good time. That was a pretty tough draw for future, and I thought he handled it as well as anyone really could.


Good job team town. Solid win.
 

3puppies

Lost Wolf
Joined
Feb 6, 2023
Messages
315
Well done!

Thanks for running this, Rock. This was hard not having any write-ups, and I fully expected to be killed as soon as I claimed. Only having 2 shots in total convinced me I had to get the info out, and hope others would believe me. Mazer and Blind solving the neighborhood with Nightengale was crucial to me believing them, as well as how they shared Foxxi's thoughts on Claws.
 
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