Mazer
Spirit Breaker
- Joined
- Jan 9, 2023
- Messages
- 2,433
Sorry, my wording was bad. I was asking on what you thought of my read on psych's behaviorsNo Claws post has triggered anything negative for me. Is it a correct read?
Sorry, my wording was bad. I was asking on what you thought of my read on psych's behaviorsNo Claws post has triggered anything negative for me. Is it a correct read?
Well, we definitely disagree on who was most positively influential in that voting.My reasoning for feeling a little better about diva than claws was the diva vote on FH, besides that both have meh votes.
Ah. I can't see this one.
That's a shame. It's one of the bestAh. I can't see this one.
Are we surprised there's not a doc, if we assume scum only had 3 before a potential traitor flip. Utilizing a bodyguard instead sounds like good balance to me.I was thinking about this as well. If we are to presume scum needed to shoot Dreyski before his traitor-ability kicked in, then that would mean the scum team was pretty light to start the game, with only ForgottenHold and whoever shot MTR last night. The roadblock is apparently off the table if I was jailed. But why would a town jail their cop in a simple game? It prevents town from learning anything.
Diva, I noticed you are now claiming a vanilla town role - highlighted above. I agree with your thoughts above, but I also wonder why a simple game didn't have a doc role? If there was a doc, wouldn't CWE have seen them visit me?
For my benefit, I am trying to understand the difference between a watcher and a tracker. We lost our watcher on N1, and CWE claimed the tracker. CWE - did you track me, or did you track psycho? A tracker tells who the person tracked went to visit at night. A watcher tells who came to visit the person watched. Do I have this right? Since psycho was seen coming to visit me, and psycho claimed he jailed me, the issue is whether it is believable that our mod would set up a simple game with this many powers for town. Would a simple game of this size give town both a watcher and a tracker, as well as a 4-power JOAT?
In order to balance things a little, scum was given a potential distraction with LDG being a miller, and Dreyski being a traitor. But scum didn't know they were out there. I am more convinced now that there has to be at least a GF among the scum, and there is probably another person besides whoever shot MTR.
I also come back to my question about whether Dreyski's BPV implies that someone in town has a gun? If so, for balance sake, wouldn't that mean the existing of a 4x powered JOAT is that much more unlikely?
CWE, did you track someone else on N1 or N2? Now that you've shared something - which happens to come at a convenient time for you to save yourself from the suspicion we were throwing at you - can you amplify your thoughts a bit?
Diva - can you explain why you think MTR was not protecting me? If he was bodyguard, and took a bullet for me, I am in his debt. And next game, I will allow him to use my D1 vote. As town, wouldn't the BG want to protect either the cop or the doc? Since a doc hasn't claimed yet, it seems that it'd either be me he'd protect, or he'd holster. But I don't understand a holster if he had a chance to protect a more important town role.
Now, for Listo's vote analysis list. I appreciate the work in putting that out there for us, but I don't think it really clears Listo at all. For now, I will stick with my vote on psycho. If psycho flips green, CWE is back on the top sus list for me, and Listo is still right there.
I'll have to check the link on another device later.That's a shame. It's one of the best
This one is required listening though
Currently at work skimming(not fully caught up) but to answer this really fast:Diva - can you explain why you think MTR was not protecting me? If he was bodyguard, and took a bullet for me, I am in his debt. And next game, I will allow him to use my D1 vote. As town, wouldn't the BG want to protect either the cop or the doc? Since a doc hasn't claimed yet, it seems that it'd either be me he'd protect, or he'd holster. But I don't understand a holster if he had a chance to protect a more important town role.
Currently at work skimming(not fully caught up) but to answer this really fast:
My understanding of bodyguard role (based on https://sc2mafia.com/wiki/Bodyguard ) is that if scum would have targeted the person being guarded then both the shooter and guard would have died, in this case only the guard died, leading me to believe MTR was the intended target.
Side note: will fully catch up when I get home but first I gotta finish paperwork at work
Val, how do you feel about cwe's comments regarding your inactivity.
Some thoughts:
Psych has the easiest claim to make. I think even he would acknowledge that. It's possible that he's not, but it is not where I see the best odds. I've already said why I don't like the holster argument. It's always possible that he factored this game different than how I expected or maybe even how he normally would. But again, doesn't seem the most probable to me.
A few people have speculated on mtr's play, and whether there is deeper meaning. I can tell you, I wouldn't have expected different, if scum has an rb. As soon as 3 pups outed himself on the mtr clear, foxxi, blind ninja, and I discussed that the obvious play was that scum would now try to block him and hope the doc stayed there.
...
I did ask myself if there could be a plot with cwe. I tried to tinfoil, and anything is possible. But it seems unlikely. His biggest truth tell indicator is he actually said Listo was at the top of his scum list. Which of course, has to be word for word true.
I still read claws town.
Listo's vote analysis wasn't bad. If Psycho beats the odds, and was clean, and Listo is dirty, I would heavily re-evaluate my read on diva and wonder about him.
I think the tactic would have been obvious to any scum as soon as the claim happened. I can't ever remember playing scum in an putted cop scenario where the strategy was not pretty apparent. Particularly when they took out satsu. Assuming at least one veteran seems safe.I expected to be killed or blocked on N2 after I came out claiming and clearing MTR. Do you think that the discussion you had in the neighborhood, with ForgottenFuture reporting back to scum, made them alter the obvious action? Even so, why would they not role block the cop N2 if they could?
I think we're on the same page. So if Psycho flips green, you will be ready to check Listo next, then Diva. Or Diva before Listo?
I agree that Listo's vote analysis wasn't bad, but it came well after many of us have formed our opinions. There's something about it that felt just enough to postpone more poking at Listo, and keep the attention on what already is a given that Psycho is today's target.
I also worry about psycho having a 1x iron collar or a no-kill, because of balance.
Diva's role analysis stuff feels like genuine solving attempts to me.
Aside from these numbers...Since one of the scum had a BPV, we can assume that there is a vigi out there with a kill, right? Seems like it would be very risky to use that kill now that we are on track for a safe 1v2
7 alive, 1 scum
lynch 1
1 person nked
5 alive, 1 scum
lynch 1
1 person NKed
3 alive, 1 scum
At this point, the two living town players have the highest chance of successfully picking and lynching the last scum.
If a vigi uses their shot before this, then the final day will be 3 town vs 1 scum, statistically less likely to hit (25%) than 2 vs 1 (33%)
Burn all 3 of them will sort out the listIf 3 pups got another ckesn result, gf probability is definitely up.
I reread all of psych's post last night.
short of dees, I would like to hear from everyone, but most particularly Diva, listo, and Val.
Aside from these numbers...
Who do you feel is the most likely final scum?
Asked who you thought was scum, not who isnt...idk probably not 3puppies. I don't think he's been confirmed by anyone else? Wouldn't be the first time a scum bussed every one of his teammates and people blindly trusted him until the end, but he's most likely the cop
But did the vote analysis really give us anything that we didnt already see and comment on?i mean not to defend him but he came mid game and hes been catching up and working i dont think not voting really matters as much as contributing he gave us the vote analysis your basing this off of anyways so kinda ironic
This.But did the vote analysis really give us anything that we didnt already see and comment on?
Same can be said with diva aswell with the abuility chart it was syill info we could get ourselfs or was knownThis.
He gave us something we already knew and discussed, when it was clear many of us suspected psycho, and what he gave us, he didn't even follow with a vote.
Same can be said with diva aswell with the abuility chart it was syill info we could get ourselfs or was known
Just go home, tell them you need a personal dayWhy is work so boring i wanna be free ugh
@3puppies You said you had no result for this round?
You may get home. But you'll never be this freeWhy is work so boring i wanna be free ugh
So, you targeted someone and rock replied "no result" or he didn't reply at all?Correct.
Are you just confessing at this point?Vote: Mazer
Are you just confessing at this point?
This far into the game and you need to do random.org?I confess to my confidence in random.org to lead me right.
Then why wouldnt you vote on someone you think is likely to be scum, instead of Mazer, who is in the neighborhood with me. This random vote on d4 just feels lazyI think it is less likely that you and 3puppies are scum than the others. Everyone else has an equal chance. I know Diva's name has come up lately as a lynch target but I don't see Diva being any more or less likely to be scum than everyone else.
Why do you find claws to be sus? or still just random.org?I forgot about the neighborhood.
Unvote: Mazer
Vote: Claws
Why do you find claws to be sus? or still just random.org?
not voting: Listo95, DivaSmurf, PsychoSoldier, 3puppies, Blind Ninja, Claws, Mazer, Val the Moofia Boss, CWE
I think it is less likely that you and 3puppies are scum than the others. Everyone else has an equal chance. I know Diva's name has come up lately as a lynch target but I don't see Diva being any more or less likely to be scum than everyone else.
I honestly expected to be voted off within the 1st few hours of day so... I wasn't even prepared :DOnly reason I havent voted listo yet is to give him a chance to speak. Needless to say, the longer he takes, the less inclined ill be to wait. Especially if he comes in with "ill talk tomorrow after work" or something of the sort.
Unvote: Claws
Vote: Diva